Beware of Risk of Significant Drop in Bitcoin Afterward

The daily chart shows a small bearish candlestick with an upper shadow, failing to successfully hold above 74,800. Instead, it rallied and then pulled back, which could be viewed as a false breakout luring bulls.

On the 4-hour chart, looking at the bullish volume momentum curve: price rebounded from 60,000 to 76,000, yet bullish volume shows a gradual declining state, indicating that bull momentum is exhausting and confidence is insufficient.

Additionally, tomorrow is the 19th, the day of the Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting. The estimated probability of rate cuts in the coming three months is 0, as oil prices are rising and inflation is increasing.

BTC price has already rebounded to 76,000. Combined with the factors listed above, Bitcoin is very likely to see this rebound stall at 76,000, which could become a turning point node that initiates a medium-term downtrend.