The current 4H level is in a typical bullish exhaustion phase: MA crossover death cross confirmed, MACD death cross accompanied by expanding histogram volume, short-term momentum clearly depleted.

Although KDJ oversold brings technical rebound demand, historical patterns show that under this death cross + volume expansion background, rebounds are mostly corrective in nature and difficult to achieve trending upside.

If this level holds, it could rebound to the 72k resistance zone, but upward momentum is limited.

If 69k is effectively broken below, it will open downside space, with 68k under pressure. By week's end, a one-sided surge is unlikely, and the probability of breaking through the previous high of 73k in the short term is low.

Unless there is significant incremental capital inflow (consecutive large net inflows from ETFs) or the Fed surprises with a dovish pivot, the current structure does not support breaking the previous high. Range-bound consolidation + bearish bias has higher probability.