Guojin Securities Chief Economist Song Xuetao: A-shares investment logic will shift from risk avoidance to seeking a new cycle

MetaMuskRat · 2026-03-13T12:08:30+00:00

Renmin Finance News, March 12 — On March 12, at China Securities' 2026 Spring Strategy Conference, Song Xuetao, Chief Economist at China Securities, pointed out that the current U.S. economy is experiencing a "K-shaped divergence": while AI investment overheating has driven GDP growth, it has squeezed traditional employment, creating "prosperity without jobs," and tech giants' debt expansion reveals emerging bubble risks. To address midterm elections, the U.S. may adopt dual fiscal and monetary easing policies and shift contradictions externally. In contrast, China's "15th Five-Year Plan" explicitly shifts toward "people-centered development and moving away from virtuality toward substance," supporting domestic demand and livelihoods through central government leverage increases. The real estate sector is approaching a clearing inflection point, with expectations for L-shaped bottom formation in 2026. The investment logic for A-shares will shift from risk aversion to seeking new cycles, with enterprises possessing global competitiveness becoming core assets.

MetaMuskRat

2026-03-13 12:08:30

People’s Financial News, March 12 — On March 12, at Guojin Securities’ 2026 Spring Strategy Conference, Guojin Securities Chief Economist Song Xuetao pointed out that the U.S. economy is currently experiencing a “K-shaped divergence”: overheated AI investments are boosting GDP but squeezing traditional employment, creating a “jobless prosperity,” while debt expansion by tech giants reveals potential bubble risks. To address midterm elections, the U.S. may adopt a dual loose fiscal and monetary policy and shift conflicts outward. In contrast, China’s 14th Five-Year Plan clearly shifts toward a “people-centered, real economy-focused” approach, supporting domestic demand and livelihoods through central government leverage. The real estate market is nearing a clearance threshold, and by 2026, a bottoming out with an L-shaped recovery is expected. A-shares investment logic will shift from risk aversion to seeking new cycles, with globally competitive companies becoming core assets.

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