Is Joby Aviation Yesterday's Tech or Tomorrow's Opportunity?

Joby Aviation stands at a critical juncture. The company behind one of the most ambitious eVTOL (electric vertical takeoff and landing) ventures has made tangible progress toward transforming urban transportation, yet its stock has shed nearly half its value from its 52-week high. The question isn’t whether air taxis represent yesterday’s concept—they clearly don’t—but rather whether current investors are wise to hold on, or if waiting is the better strategy.

The Progress: Building eVTOL Reality Piece by Piece

The trajectory of Joby Aviation’s development suggests the company is moving methodically toward its goals. Throughout 2025, the company executed hundreds of test flights, validating the core engineering behind its eVTOL aircraft. Looking ahead, the company is preparing to deploy flight simulators for pilot training—a significant milestone that signals movement closer to regulatory approval from the FAA.

These aren’t trivial achievements. Each test flight, each simulator hour, represents progress toward a transportation future where flying over traffic congestion could become routine. If artificial intelligence integration eventually enables autonomous eVTOL operations, the transformative potential multiplies considerably. From a technological standpoint, yesterday’s skepticism about whether electric air taxis could work seems increasingly unfounded.

The Problem: Profitability and Shareholder Dilution

The technology narrative, however, faces harsh financial realities. During the first nine months of 2025, Joby posted losses of $1.01 per share—nearly double the $0.53 per share loss in the same period of 2024. Losses are accelerating despite the company’s operational progress, a sign that sustainable profitability remains distant.

More immediately concerning for shareholders, Joby recently announced a capital raise involving $600 million in convertible notes and the issuance of 52,863,437 new common shares. While such fundraising is standard for pre-revenue ventures going public, each new share issued dilutes existing shareholders’ ownership stakes. Wall Street has clearly taken notice, adopting what amounts to a “prove it first” stance toward the stock.

The Venture Capital Reality Check

This dilution pattern highlights a fundamental truth: getting from today’s early-stage eVTOL company to sustainable profitability will require significant capital and extended runway. The company essentially bet that public markets would be the solution to its funding needs, but public market investors have become skeptical about when that payoff will arrive.

The comparison to Netflix and Nvidia—both early-stage recommendations that produced extraordinary returns—is instructive but misleading. Those companies achieved profitability before mainstream adoption. Joby remains years away from revenue, let alone profits.

The Verdict: Why Waiting Might Beat Jumping In Now

For most retail investors, the prudent approach is likely to wait. Yes, if Joby’s air taxis eventually launch commercially and gain market adoption, the opportunity could be substantial and long-lasting rather than a fleeting event. But that outcome remains years away and far from assured.

The company faces regulatory hurdles, technological refinement needs, and the perpetual challenge of raising capital at acceptable terms. Jumping in at today’s depressed prices might seem contrarian, but patient capital waiting for clearer evidence of commercial viability is a more rational bet.

In this case, yesterday’s skepticism may still be today’s wisdom. The eVTOL opportunity remains real, but Joby needs to demonstrate more than technological progress—it needs a credible path to financial sustainability. When that path becomes visible, the investment case will be far more compelling than it is right now.