Record Iran strike bets drive $469M volume on Polymarket, raising insider wallet and market integrity concerns.
Rising tensions in the Middle East triggered record activity on prediction markets. Polymarket posted its highest single-day volume as traders rushed to price in the Iran strikes. At the same time, several wallets captured large profits before official confirmation.
Polymarket Hits $469M Record as Iran Strike Bets Deliver Outsized Profits
Dune data shows Polymarket reached $469 million in single-day notional volume. That figure marks an all-time high for the platform. Last week, political contracts alone accounted for $350 million.
_Image Source: _****Dune
However, trading patterns showed that traders appeared to bet on the strikes before they were confirmed. According to Bubblemaps, at least six connected wallets made about $1.2 million in profit. They placed large bets before the market adjusted the odds.
Once the strikes were announced, prices changed fast, and their positions gained value. Another trader, known as “flydartball,” placed over $170,000 betting that the U.S. would launch missile strikes on Iranian cities. After the strikes were confirmed, the value of that bet rose to nearly $500,000.
Roughly a year ago, the same trader reportedly earned more than $250,000. The profit came from betting on a previous U.S. operation against Iran known as “Midnight Hammer.” The account is wagered on Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, stepping down soon. That position is already showing an unrealized gain of about $56,000.
Another striking example involves a wallet named “Roeyha2026.” According to Lookonchain data, the account was created just 11 hours before the strike confirmation. The wallet placed $50,000 on the U.S. launching strikes on Iran by March 1, 2026. After the announcement, the bet’s value rose to around $96,800, representing a 93% return within hours.
Insider Trading Fears Surface After Timely Geopolitical Bets
When several wallets record large gains around the same geopolitical event, attention follows. Prediction markets are transparent, and wallet activity is publicly visible on-chain. Still, concentrated profits ahead of public confirmation can lead to questions about timing and access to information.
Some market observers are now debating whether access to non-public or classified information played a role. If any trader acted on privileged military intelligence, that would create an unfair advantage over the broader market. Even without proof of misconduct, precise timing from suspected insider wallets fuels suspicion and weakens confidence.
At the same time, regulatory conditions have shifted. Over the past year, the Trump administration has taken a more supportive stance toward crypto-related businesses. That environment has allowed platforms such as Polymarket to expand participation and liquidity.
As political betting grows, calls for closer oversight may follow. Debate now centers on fairness, transparency, and whether additional safeguards are needed if event-driven markets continue to attract large speculative capital.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Encouraging innovation! A U.S. judge bans Arizona’s regulators from prediction markets and suspends the prosecution of Kalshi
A U.S. federal district court has ruled that Arizona is barred from using its gambling law to sue the prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the Federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the boundary between state and federal authority in financial market regulation, and Kalshi maintains that its business falls under financial products rather than traditional gambling. Courts in different states have issued differing rulings on prediction markets, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.
CryptoCity1h ago
Polymarket Trader Turns $500 Into $252K After UFC Makes Yet Another Scoring Error
In brief
A Polymarket trader walked away with $252,000 in profit after the UFC incorrectly identified a fight’s winner for the second time in two weeks.
An X account linked to the Polymarket trader said that they had noticed the error by looking at the bout’s official scorecard.
The
Decrypt1h ago
Polymarket reviews and weeds out early-stage projects in its ecosystem, targeting insider trading and market manipulation behaviors
Polymarket announced an audit of some of the onboarded startup projects that have been accused of using allegedly insider trading account information to steer users into making trades. The move is intended to strengthen compliance management and address external concerns about the risks of insider trading.
GateNews2h ago
Encourage innovation! A U.S. judge bans Arizona-regulated prediction markets and suspends prosecution against Kalshi.
A U.S. federal district court has ruled that Arizona is barred from using the gambling law to prosecute the prediction market platform Kalshi, finding that the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the line between state and federal authority over financial market regulation, while Kalshi maintains that its business is a financial product rather than traditional gambling. Decisions on prediction markets vary from state to state, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.
CryptoCity4h ago
Encourage innovation! A U.S. judge bars Arizona’s regulation of prediction markets, and pauses the prosecution of Kalshi
A U.S. federal district court ruled to block Arizona from suing the prediction market platform Kalshi under its gambling laws, finding that the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission has exclusive jurisdiction. The ruling affects the boundary between state and federal authority in regulating financial markets. Kalshi has insisted that its business is a financial product rather than traditional gambling. Rulings by different states on prediction markets have varied, and the Trump family has also expressed support for prediction markets.
CryptoCity7h ago
New Wallet Bets $40K on Trump Iran Ceasefire Announcement, Down 85%
Gate News message, a newly created wallet named "bullseye123" spent $40K betting that Trump will announce the end of the US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 or April 18. The wallet holder is currently down $34K, representing an 85% loss on the position.
GateNews8h ago
