At around $1,800, the debate is between the "whales exiting to hedge" and the "HODLers holding firm." Who should I follow? My answer is: neither, I follow "time."

· Whale Retreat: Data shows that whale sell orders are decreasing, which is indeed unsettling. But this doesn't necessarily mean they are bearish on the market; it could also be to avoid short-term macro risks (like interest rate expectations) or simply repositioning their holdings. They are "smart money," but their operational cycle differs from that of retail investors.
· HODLers Holding Firm: In February, they bought 2.5 million coins against the trend, which is definitely a confidence booster. This reflects long-term believers' recognition of ETH's value (such as staking and L2 ecosystems).

At the $1,800 level, I won't blindly "buy the dip" and lie down with the HODLers, nor will I blindly cut losses and run with the whales. My strategy is: **treat this level as an observation point.** If a dip back to $1,800 holds and there is sustained buying volume, I will try a small long position; if $1,800 drops sharply and breaks down, I will decisively avoid going long and even consider shorting with the trend. Before whales and the stubborn bulls decide the outcome, position management is more important than predicting the direction.