Looking back at several typical bear markets in history, they all secretly follow highly similar patterns:

2017–2018 bear market, which unfolded in two phases: first dropping from 18,000 to the 6,000–8,000 range, experiencing a long period of consolidation and bottoming out, then halving again, with the lowest point near 3,000.
2019–2020 small bear market, also two steps: falling from 14,000 to the 6,000–7,000 range, rebounding and consolidating, then halving again, with the lowest around 3,800.
The 2022 bear market is no exception: from 69,000, it halved to 32,000, rebounded and consolidated for several months, then further declined based on the previous lows, ultimately settling in the 15,000–16,000 range.

If we simply extrapolate based on historical patterns, a relatively stable rule becomes apparent:
In each bear market cycle, on the monthly chart, new lows tend to undergo two halving events.

Applying this to the current market: from 120,000 down to 60,000, the first halving has already occurred.
Following the historical script, a further decline to the 30,000–40,000 range seems not entirely unrealistic.

But the reason I don’t believe the price will truly fall to 30,000 is based on a core logic:
In market cycles, the eternal unchanging rule is that “things don’t happen more than three times.”

Any repeatedly validated pattern almost inevitably deviates from expectations or even fails outright on the fourth attempt.
History may rhyme, but it will never simply repeat itself.

Based on this reasoning, my strategy is very clear:
As long as new lows appear in the future, it’s the time to gradually add positions and dollar-cost average.

Holding spot positions with costs below 60,000, or even below 50,000,
In the long run, I really can’t think of any reason to lose.