Dollar Strength Pressures Wheat Complex Through Late January and Into February

The wheat market is experiencing sustained weakness across all major trading venues as the US dollar index climbs higher, dampening demand and pushing prices lower across the board. Chicago SRW wheat futures are down approximately 10-11 cents, while Kansas City HRW futures have lost about 9-10 cents. Minneapolis spring wheat is similarly pressured, down 9-10 cents from recent levels. This synchronized decline reflects broad market softness tied directly to currency strength in the 1/4 index period.

Export Activity Reveals Strong International Demand Despite Price Pressure

Recent Export Inspections data through January 29 shows wheat shipments reached 326,828 MT (approximately 12 million bushels), marking a 13.76% decline from the preceding week but representing a significant 29.11% increase compared to the same period last year. Mexico led as the primary destination with 60,886 MT, followed closely by Taiwan at 55,702 MT and Malaysia at 55,630 MT. Year-to-date marketing year shipments have accumulated to 16.69 MMT (613.1 million bushels), up 18.61% on a year-over-year basis. These figures underscore robust global appetite for US wheat despite the domestic price weakness experienced during this 1/4 index trading window.

Large Traders Adjust Positions as Market Sentiment Shifts

Commitment of Traders data as of January 27 indicates managed money traders have been actively covering short positions in Chicago wheat futures and options, reducing their net short exposure by 15,957 contracts to 94,743 contracts. Speculative traders in Kansas City wheat similarly trimmed their net short position by 2,689 contracts, bringing levels to 10,329 contracts. Taiwan’s separate wheat tender from the US late in the period totaled 106,350 MT, highlighting continued international buying interest at prevailing price levels.

Current Pricing Landscape Across All Wheat Contracts

March 2026 CBOT wheat is trading at $5.26½, down 11½ cents, while May 2026 CBOT wheat is quoted at $5.35½, down 10½ cents. Kansas City contracts show March 2026 at $5.34½ (down 10¼ cents) and May 2026 at $5.45½ (down 9½ cents). Minneapolis contracts are priced with March 2026 at $5.68½ (down 9¾ cents) and May 2026 at $5.82¼ (down 9¼ cents). The consistent price pressure across all contract months and trading venues reflects the broad-based market weakness characterizing this period within the 1/4 index timeframe.