Arabica and Robusta Show Diverging Trends Amid Global Supply Dynamics

Coffee markets delivered mixed signals on Monday, with arabica coffee rising on technical short covering while robusta stumbled to a 4-week low. This divergence between the two coffee varieties reflects their fundamentally different supply outlooks, with arabica benefiting from technical support even as robust production increases elsewhere, and robusta facing mounting export pressures from the world’s largest producer.

Arabica Rebounds Technically Despite Ample Brazilian Supplies

March arabica coffee closed up +1.00 points (+0.30%) on Monday, lifted by mild technical short covering after prices failed to break below last Friday’s 5.5-month low. While this rebound marks a near-term reprieve, the longer-term pressure on arabica prices persists from expected abundant supplies in Brazil, the world’s primary arabica producer.

The rainfall situation in Brazil’s Minas Gerais region—the country’s largest arabica-growing area—paints a mixed picture. According to Somar Meteorologia’s report issued Monday, the region received 69.8 mm of rain during the week ended January 30, representing 117% of the historical average. While such abundant moisture supports healthy yields, it ultimately pressures prices by signaling ample harvests ahead.

Official production forecasts underscore this supply abundance. Conab, Brazil’s crop agency, raised its 2025 coffee production estimate by 2.4% to 56.54 million bags in December, up from 55.20 million bags estimated in September. This upward revision suggests Brazil’s arabica crop will remain robust, keeping prices under structural downward pressure despite occasional technical rebounds like Monday’s.

Robusta Battles Export Surge From Vietnam

In contrast, robusta coffee weakened more severely, with March ICE robusta falling -84 points (-2.04%) to touch a 4-week low. This steeper decline reflects robusta’s specific vulnerability: Vietnam’s coffee exports are surging, flooding global markets with cheaper supplies.

Vietnam, the world’s largest robusta producer, reported that 2025 coffee exports jumped 17.5% year-over-year to 1.58 million metric tons according to its National Statistics Office data released January 5. Looking ahead, Vietnam’s 2025/26 coffee production is projected to climb 6% year-over-year to 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags), marking a 4-year high. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association added in October that Vietnam’s output could be 10% higher than the previous crop year if weather conditions cooperate.

This avalanche of Vietnamese robusta is fundamentally different from arabica’s supply picture. While arabica benefits from at least some production uncertainties in Brazil, robusta faces relentless supply growth from a single dominant source, creating persistent downward price pressure.

Global Inventories Recovering, Testing Both Varieties

A notable headwind for both arabica and robusta is the recovery in exchange-monitored inventories. ICE arabica inventories fell to a 1.75-year low of 396,513 bags on November 18 but bounced to a 3.25-month high of 461,829 bags by January 7. Similarly, robusta inventories slumped to a 13-month low of 4,012 lots on December 10 before recovering to a 2-month high of 4,662 lots last Monday.

This inventory rebound suggests ample supplies are reaching the market, limiting any near-term price recovery prospects for either variety.

Brazil’s Export Decline vs. Vietnam’s Surge: The Arabica-Robusta Divide

A potential bright spot emerges from Brazil’s coffee export data. According to Cecafe’s latest report, Brazil’s December green coffee exports fell 18.4% to 2.86 million bags, with arabica specifically down 10% year-over-year to 2.6 million bags and robusta down sharply 61% year-over-year to 222,147 bags.

This export contraction in Brazil could theoretically support arabica prices by tightening supplies from the world’s largest producer. However, this benefit appears modest compared to the downside pressure from expected large Brazilian harvests and Vietnam’s explosive robusta shipments.

Production Forecasts: A Tale of Two Coffees

The USDA’s Foreign Agriculture Service painted a picture of diverging paths for arabica versus robusta in its December 18 report on 2025/26 production. World coffee production overall will increase 2.0% year-over-year to a record 178.848 million bags, but the composition matters.

Arabica production faces headwinds, declining 4.7% year-over-year to 95.515 million bags. Brazil’s arabica output is expected to fall 3.1% to 63 million bags. In contrast, robusta production will jump 10.9% year-over-year to 83.333 million bags, with Vietnam’s output surging 6.2% year-over-year to 30.8 million bags—a 4-year high.

This structural divergence explains the different price trajectories for arabica versus robusta. While global coffee ending stocks will decline 5.4% to 20.148 million bags from 21.307 million bags in 2024/25, the reduction masks a critical shift: arabica supplies tightening while robusta supplies expand dramatically.

Looking Ahead: Arabica and Robusta in Distinct Positions

The international Coffee Organization reported on November 7 that global coffee exports for the current marketing year fell 0.3% year-over-year to 138.658 million bags, signaling a slightly tighter overall market. However, this global tightness masks very different dynamics for arabica and robusta.

Arabica faces a precarious balance: abundant Brazilian supplies and recovering ICE inventories press prices downward, yet technical strength and potential export constraints from Brazil provide occasional support. Robusta, meanwhile, battles an avalanche of Vietnamese supplies that will keep downward pressure relentless through the season. For traders, the arabica versus robusta divide is the key insight—not all coffee price pressures are created equal.