#当前行情抄底还是观望？ The crypto market has not yet entered a deep bear phase, with the "ultimate" bottom around $55,000

The "ultimate" bottom of Bitcoin's bear market is currently around $55,000, and it typically takes several months to form the bottom rather than a single capitulation event.
Bitcoin's realized price has historically been a key support zone during bear markets and likely represents the final bear market bottom. Currently, Bitcoin's trading price remains over 25% above this level. The company states that in previous bear markets, prices fell below the realized price by 24% after the FTX collapse, and during the 2018 cycle, it dropped below by 30%. After reaching these levels, Bitcoin usually takes four to six months to build a bottom.
Another sign that Bitcoin has not yet reached a structural bottom is the massive single-day realized losses. Data shows that on February 5, when Bitcoin's price dropped 14% to $62,000, holders recorded an average daily realized loss of $5.4 billion, the highest since March 2023 (when it was $5.8 billion), surpassing the $4.3 billion recorded a few days after the FTX collapse in November 2022. Despite the large losses, the price bottom has not yet arrived.
"Monthly cumulative realized losses measured in Bitcoin are still well below the levels corresponding to the bear market bottom, currently at 300,000 BTC, compared to 1.1 million BTC at the end of the 2022 bear market," the report states.

Several key valuation metrics also remain above the panic selling zones in history. The MVRV ratio (market value to realized value) has not entered the extreme undervaluation zone historically associated with bear market bottoms.
Similarly, the NUPL indicator has not reached the past cycle lows of about 20% unrealized losses.
Long-term holders' behavior also does not reflect complete panic selling. Currently, long-term holders are selling at near breakeven prices, whereas during past bear market bottoms, they endured losses of 30%-40%. Additionally, about 55% of Bitcoin supply is still in profit, while cycle lows typically occur within the 45%-50% range.

Its bull-bear cycle indicator remains in the "bear market phase," not the "extreme bear market phase" — the latter historically marks the start of price bottoming. The company notes that this extreme phase usually lasts several months, indicating that the formation of the bear market bottom takes time.