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#Gate廣場發帖領五萬美金紅包
Chinese New Year has a significant seasonal effect on Bitcoin (BTC), historically showing a pattern of "drop first, then rise":
Pre-Festival Sell-Off (Chinese New Year Dump): Due to Asian (especially Chinese) investors needing to cash out for holiday expenses, travel, or red envelopes, there is often about a 20% decline in the 1-4 weeks before the festival, accompanied by reduced trading volume.
Red Envelope Rally (Post-Festival Recovery): Historical data shows a very high probability of gains during the Spring Festival period. From 2015 to 2024, BTC has recorded positive returns during the Spring Festival for 10 consecutive years (ranging from 0.8% to 19.5%).
Turning Point in 2025: This ten-year streak of gains was broken for the first time in the Year of the Snake in 2025, with the price dropping about 4.8%.
According to statistics from 10x Research, if you buy three days before Lunar New Year’s Eve and sell on the tenth day, the average historical return is about 11%. The market for the Year of the Horse in 2026 is closely watching whether this "Red Envelope Rally" can return.
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