Standard Chartered's Cautious Bitcoin Price Forecast Is Reasonable: Why Is the $50,000 Level Still Appropriate?

Bitcoin remains under pressure, declining approximately 1.2% over the past 24 hours and trading near $66,000 at the time of writing. Despite short-term recoveries, the overall structure remains weak.
Currently, even major institutions are becoming more cautious in their Bitcoin price forecasts. New on-chain signals and long-term holders indicate that downside risks have not yet ended.
Standard Chartered’s Warning Aligns with Capital Outflows from ETFs and Institutions
Recently, Standard Chartered reiterated that Bitcoin could drop to $50,000 before a sustainable recovery. The bank points out weakening demand for ETFs and declining institutional participation as key risks. When comparing this view with current market data, it aligns perfectly.

On the price chart, Bitcoin has broken the bearish flag structure. A bearish flag forms when the price stabilizes after a sharp decline and then continues downward. This pattern indicates selling pressure still dominates, even with short-term recoveries.
Meanwhile, institutional capital flow indicators are weakening. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), which tracks whether large funds are entering or leaving the market, has dropped sharply. Currently, the CMF appears weaker than during the correction from January to April 2025, when Bitcoin declined about 31%.

This time, the decline is even more severe. Bitcoin has fallen nearly 38% from its peak, and the CMF has dropped faster than in early 2025. This confirms that institutional buying activity has not yet returned. Without sustained capital inflows from large investors, upward rallies are unlikely to be sustained.
Notably, during the period from April to October 2025, when BTC reached its peak, the CMF only dipped below zero a few times and only slightly. But now, the decline in CMF looks much more alarming.
This is why Standard Chartered’s caution is justified. The chart decline and weak capital flows related to ETFs tell the same story. But institutional weakness is not the only concern.

On-Chain Profit and Long-Term Investors Still Indicate Potential Continued Downside
Beyond ETFs, on-chain data shows investor confidence remains fragile.
An important indicator is the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL). NUPL measures the unrealized gains or losses that holders are experiencing by comparing the current price to the last traded price.
During the April 2024 recovery, NUPL was near 0.42, indicating minimal unrealized profits and supporting the rebound. Currently, NUPL has fallen much lower.
It dropped to around 0.11 in early February and is now near 0.17. This means most remaining profits from the bullish cycle have been wiped out. But this does not confirm a bottom when considering the broader picture.

History shows NUPL can fall even further. In March 2023, NUPL dropped close to 0.02 when Bitcoin traded around $20,000. That marked a strong capitulation before the next major rally began. Compared to that period, the current NUPL level is still relatively high, suggesting the market may not be fully cleansed yet.
Behavior of long-term holders supports this view. Long-term BTC holders are wallets that have held Bitcoin for over a year. These investors typically accumulate during sharp declines and help stabilize prices.
Currently, they are still net sellers. In early February 2025, long-term holders reduced their holdings by over 170,000 BTC. During the recent peak sell-off in February 2026, outflows reached nearly 245,000 BTC. This is a larger distribution than during the correction from January to April 2025.

Previously, demand from long-term investors began to recover before prices rebounded. Currently, that recovery has not yet materialized. Simply put, institutions are cautious, profits are declining, and long-term investors have not yet re-entered. This combination makes a strong short-term rebound unlikely.

Why the $53,000–$48,000 Range Remains Critical on the Bitcoin Price Chart
With fundamental factors and on-chain data both indicating a downtrend, the current Bitcoin price level is extremely important. The current bearish flag pattern points to a broad support zone between $53,200 and $48,300. This range aligns with key Fibonacci retracement levels.
The midpoint of this zone is near $50,000, which remains a significant psychological level. Round numbers tend to attract strong buying and selling activity, acting as natural magnets during corrections. That’s why Standard Chartered’s $50,000 view aligns with technical structure. It is not an arbitrary target; it sits right within the main support band.

If selling pressure persists and ETF capital flows remain weak, Bitcoin could test this zone in the coming months. In a deeper correction scenario, the price could fall to $42,400, matching long-term support levels and historical lows.
To slow this potential sharp decline, BTC needs to regain and hold above $72,100 with strong trading volume and institutional capital returning. That would signal renewed demand and invalidate the bearish flag pattern. So far, there is no evidence of that happening.