History shows that Bitcoin is usually weak according to the four-year cycle. Will 2026 repeat the old scenario?

On global financial markets, the concept of a “four-year cycle” for risky assets has been increasingly discussed recently. This model is often associated with deep correction phases of Bitcoin and stock markets, with notable lows in 2014, 2018, and 2022.
As we enter 2026, the volatility of assets such as Bitcoin, gold, and silver is prompting many investors to question whether this cycle might repeat. Is this an early warning sign for the Vietnamese stock market, or just short-term fluctuations?

Assessing the “four-year cycle” of Bitcoin and risky assets in general, Mr. Bui Van Huy — Investment Research Director at FIDT — believes this is not a coincidence but an important indicator of global market sentiment. According to Mr. Huy, Bitcoin’s decline clearly reflects increasing risk-off sentiment driven by macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainties.
This context becomes even more sensitive as major stock markets worldwide remain at high levels. In the US, the Dow Jones index has just officially surpassed 50,000 points, while the Japanese market is also near historic highs. This creates a significant correction risk if investor sentiment turns cautious.
Meanwhile, the rally in gold after its correction confirms this trend, reflecting a shift of capital into safe-haven assets. Mr. Huy emphasizes that this is not short-term noise but a clear warning signal of capital pressure that the Vietnamese market may face, especially through foreign net selling channels.
Therefore, investors should pay more attention to global macro variables and cross-market developments in the current period.

The Context Has Changed
Compared to the period before the sharp decline in 2022, experts believe the current environment differs in many ways, with the key factor being Vietnam’s internal strength and proactive policy management.
He notes that the core difference is that in 2022, Vietnam was reactive to Fed pressures, leading to a rather “shock” rate hike to cope. Currently, if interest rates trend upward, it will be a proactive, controlled step with a clear roadmap from the State Bank to preempt inflation pressures and stabilize macroeconomics.
This proactive stance, according to Mr. Huy, stems from a stronger internal foundation. Macroeconomic data as of January 2026 show positive growth in industrial production (IIP), export turnover maintaining impressive growth, reinforcing a trade surplus, while inflation remains under control. This solid foundation provides room for policymakers to act flexibly rather than react passively as before.

Early Equilibrium Level Established, Capital Flows Set to Return
According to the FIDT expert, the likelihood of a severe decline repeating is low due to differences in internal strength and policy proactive measures.
However, amid risks of correction from global markets, the domestic market may still experience some fluctuations. “Strong technical support zones around 1,650–1,700 points will serve as important buffers. Additionally, the goal of achieving double-digit growth from 2026–2030 is expected to benefit the stock market,” Mr. Huy emphasized.
More importantly, long-term capital will be attracted by Vietnam’s unique story. With stable macro fundamentals and prospects for market upgrades approaching, Vietnam becomes relatively more attractive. The expert believes that the market’s equilibrium zone will soon be established, and long-term capital will return more quickly as the valuation of good companies normalizes.

Regarding valuation, the current market P/E ratio has fallen to about 14.2 times, below the historical average. In a rising interest rate environment, the P/E ratio may decrease further. However, Mr. Huy views the P/E range of 13–14 times as still relatively attractive given the high growth prospects for the period 2026–2030.