After experiencing an extreme decline of 43% within 9 days and touching a low of $1,739, Ethereum (ETH) has seen a technical rebound. On February 10, it regained the $2,100 level, with intraday gains exceeding 2%. However, this rebound is more aligned with the overall recovery of the crypto market and the US stock market, and is more widely interpreted as a technical correction after an oversold condition. Its sustainability faces severe tests.

The core conflicting signals in the market are:
Price and sentiment divergence: Despite the price rebound, sentiment in the derivatives market remains subdued. The annualized premium of ETH two-month futures is about 3%, below the neutral level of 5%, indicating traders' risk appetite is insufficient, and bears still dominate.
Weak capital performance: Since 2026, ETH's price performance has lagged the overall crypto market total market cap by about 9%, raising concerns about continued capital outflows.
On-chain pressure: Due to recent slowdown in on-chain activity, ETH's supply has not maintained deflationary pressure, with the annualized supply growth rate over the past 30 days rising to 0.8%.
Multiple indicators show that market confidence in forming a sustainable short-term upward trend for ETH is clearly lacking, and the stage bottom has not yet been confirmed. $ETH