Will Ethereum perform another "V-shaped rebound" miracle? Technical analysis based on historical data and on-chain indicators

After experiencing months of prolonged downturn and deep retracement, the Ethereum (ETH) market has recently shown signs of recovery. As of February 9, 2026, according to Gate Market data, ETH is temporarily priced at $2,073.91 with a market capitalization of $252.82B. Despite a slight decline of 0.64% over the past 24 hours, market sentiment has eased from extreme panic. A familiar but crucial question has resurfaced: Will Ethereum follow its historical “V-shaped rebound” pattern to initiate a sustainable upward trend? This article will provide a multi-dimensional analysis by reviewing historical charts, key technical indicators, and on-chain data.

Historical Review: Classic Cases of Ethereum’s “V-shaped Rebounds”

A “V-shaped rebound” typically refers to an asset’s price experiencing a sharp, brief decline followed by a rapid recovery at a similar steep angle, forming a “V” shape on the chart. Ethereum has repeatedly staged such scenarios in its development history.

The Jump After the 2018 Bear Market Dip (Dec 2018 - Jun 2019)

• Retracement: From a peak of approximately $1,432 down to $82, a decline of -94%.
• Bottoming and Rebound: After consolidating in the $80 - $100 range for about 3 months, ETH initiated a rebound, reaching a high of $363 within the following 6 months, a rebound of over 340%, successfully establishing a new cycle bottom.

The Stress Test Post-Merge (Jun 2022 - Apr 2023)

• Retracement: Following the all-time high of $4,946.05 in 2021, impacted by macro liquidity tightening and industry negative events, ETH fell to around $880 in June 2022, a -82% retracement from the high.
• Bottoming and Rebound: The price oscillated in the $1,000 - $1,200 range for nearly 9 months. Then, in Q1 2023, ETH launched a strong rebound, briefly surpassing $2,100, with a stage gain of 140%, again confirming the potential for a robust recovery after deep retracement.

Each significant “V-shaped rebound” involves two phases: first, extreme price compression and panic selling (forming the “left wing” of the “V”), then a consensus-driven capital inflow driven by improved fundamentals or macro shifts (forming the “right wing”). Currently, ETH has retraced over -58% from its 2025 peak of $4,946.05, entering a critical period to identify and confirm a “V” bottom.

Assessing the Quality of This Rebound: Technical Indicators and On-Chain Signals

Relying solely on historical pattern analogy is insufficient for conclusions; the health of current market indicators is key to judging the sustainability of the rebound.

Technical Indicator Analysis

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): The daily RSI has recovered from oversold territory (below 30) to around the mid-50s, indicating weakening downside momentum but not yet entering strong bullish territory. If RSI can stabilize above 55 with increasing volume, it signals strengthening upward momentum.
• Moving Averages: The current price of $2,073.91 is attempting to challenge and stabilize above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). According to models from platforms like Mitrade, the $2,150 to $2,300 zone consolidates multiple previous rebound highs, forming the first key resistance band. A successful break above this zone could open the door to testing $2,500 and higher resistance levels.
• Volume Profile: The recent rebound’s health depends on sustained increasing volume. Healthy upward moves are often accompanied by rising volume as prices advance.

On-Chain Data Perspective

• Exchange Net Flows: Continuous outflows of funds from exchanges to private wallets (exchange balances decreasing) are generally seen as a sign of long-term holder (HODLer) confidence, reducing immediate selling pressure.
• Network Activity and Gas Fees: Steady growth in active addresses and stable Gas fees indicate that the underlying demand for Ethereum’s ecosystem remains solid, supporting its intrinsic value.

Key Resistance Levels and Future Outlook

Combining the latest Gate data with historical patterns, we can identify critical levels to watch for ETH’s future trajectory:

• Immediate Resistance: $2,150 - $2,283.84. The upper boundary of this zone is based on Gate’s model prediction of the potential maximum price in 2026, where short-term technical sell pressure and profit-taking are concentrated.
• Major Resistance Zone: $2,500 - $2,800. This is a significant consolidation platform from the previous rebound and a mid-term fortress to overcome for a larger reversal.
• Support Levels: $1,800 - $1,900 are the current short-term support zones. A stronger psychological and structural support lies near $1,320.02 (2026 predicted minimum price).

Overall View and Future Outlook:

Analysts like Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors, have emphasized that under macro liquidity shifts and driven by ongoing technological upgrades (such as Ethereum’s continuous upgrades), crypto rebounds tend to be swift and powerful. Currently, ETH is in the early stages of building the “right wing” of a “V-shaped rebound.”

While long-term forecasts suggest ETH could reach $4,481.25 by 2031 (+49.00% potential return), the medium and short-term path will not be smooth. Future movements depend on whether ETH can effectively break through the resistance zones and be validated by on-chain fundamentals (like Layer 2 adoption, staking growth) and broader macroeconomic conditions.

Conclusion

History does not simply repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Ethereum’s historical “V-shaped rebound” pattern offers valuable insights into market psychology and structure. Currently, ETH is at a delicate intersection of technical and fundamental factors. On one hand, deep retracement has created potential value; on the other, sustained upward movement requires overcoming significant technical resistance and attracting incremental capital.

For traders and investors, closely monitoring real-time prices and on-chain data on the Gate platform, combined with key resistance and support levels discussed herein, will be more meaningful than merely guessing tops or bottoms. Markets always move through waves, and rationality and data are the best compass to navigate through the cycle fog.