Macroeconomic Shift: How Do Weak Employment Data Reshape Cryptocurrency Market Risk Appetite?

A disappointing U.S. employment report caused Bitcoin to experience a sharp volatility within 24 hours, soaring from around $68,500 to above $71,000. The market is re-pricing everything with real money.

Transmission Chain

The current cryptocurrency market is more closely linked than ever to macroeconomic signals. Recently, a series of underwhelming employment data in the U.S. acted like a stone thrown into a calm lake, with ripples spreading through clear chains into the crypto market.

First, weak employment data directly shook market confidence in the economy’s continued strength, sparking concerns about growth prospects. These concerns quickly translated into strong expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve monetary policy. San Francisco Fed Chair Mary Daly’s recent comments intensified these expectations, hinting that further rate cuts might be necessary to address labor market weakness. Changes in monetary policy expectations are rapidly reflected in forex and traditional safe-haven asset markets. Rising rate cut expectations often put pressure on the dollar while boosting the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.

However, during periods of liquidity crunch, this traditional relationship may break down, and all high-liquidity assets could be sold off simultaneously for cash.

Ultimately, this transmission chain points to risk appetite in the cryptocurrency market. When the market expects liquidity to loosen due to rate cuts, funds tend to reassess high-risk, high-volatility assets like Bitcoin.

The following chart clearly outlines the complete transmission path from macro data to the crypto market:

Market Performance and Capital Rotation

Under the influence of macro transmission mechanisms, various assets have recently shown complex and sometimes contradictory trends.

For example, in early February 2026, after the U.S. released weak employment data, Bitcoin briefly plummeted to around $60,000, a significant retreat from its 2025 highs, but then quickly rebounded above $71,000 due to rate cut expectations. This intense volatility highlights how market sentiment can switch rapidly between panic and greed.

Contrary to traditional understanding, recent market conditions have seen risk assets and safe-haven assets decline together. Bitcoin, gold, and silver all experienced deep corrections simultaneously, indicating that the core drivers of the market may not be a loss of faith in specific assets but rather a global liquidity tightening. When markets are under pressure, investors tend to sell the most liquid and easily realizable assets—whether stocks, gold, or mainstream cryptocurrencies—to raise cash or meet margin calls.

According to Gate market data, this divergence is evident in specific assets. As of February 9, 2026, Bitcoin (BTC) was trading at $70,434.9, up 1.53% in the past 24 hours, while Ethereum (ETH) was at $2,073.34, down 0.66%. In the precious metals token sector, gold-backed XAUT was at $4,999.4 (+0.45%), and silver token XAG performed strongly, soaring 4.71% to $81.73.

Asset Correlation Analysis

The macro shifts triggered by weak employment data are reshaping traditional relationships between different asset classes. Understanding these new correlations is crucial for assessing capital flows.

Recent market behavior shows that the traditional positive correlation between cryptocurrencies (especially Bitcoin) and tech stocks has been reinforced during certain periods. When U.S. tech stocks face sell-offs, Bitcoin often comes under pressure simultaneously, indicating that in markets dominated by institutional investors, both are viewed as “high-risk growth assets.” However, the relationship between cryptocurrencies and gold has become more nuanced and context-dependent. In typical “safe-haven” scenarios, they may move together positively. But during broad sell-offs caused by liquidity tightening, both may be sold indiscriminately due to their high liquidity, resulting in synchronized declines.

Long-term, the price performance of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin is deeply related to global dollar liquidity. U.S. banks note that the crypto market is the first to sense shifts in global policy and is most sensitive to liquidity changes. When the market anticipates that the Fed might pivot to a “policy capitulation” and start cutting rates due to economic pressures, cryptocurrencies tend to react first.

The recent performance of major crypto assets and their macro correlations are summarized in the table below:

Outlook and Market Divergence

Looking ahead, macroeconomic uncertainties may lead to more pronounced divergence within the crypto market, rather than uniform gains or losses.

One view suggests that Bitcoin, due to its limited supply and widespread recognition, is strengthening its attributes as “digital gold” or “digital commodity.” Under regionalized and safety-first macro narratives, it may be more inclined to serve as a hedge against traditional financial system risks.

Other crypto assets, especially tokens tied to specific projects, protocols, and rights, tend to behave more like high-risk tech growth stocks. In an environment where risk-free rates remain high, they need to offer high risk premiums to attract capital. This divergence implies that future allocation strategies might need to adopt a “split account management”: treating Bitcoin and similar assets as independent hedging assets, while considering other tokens within a high-volatility risk asset framework.

Institutions like Standard Chartered have adjusted their forecasts for Solana, lowering the 2026 year-end target price to $250 but significantly raising their long-term outlook for 2030 to $2,000, optimistic about its dominance in micro-payments and specific fields.

The market’s ultimate direction will depend on whether the “weak employment data” is an isolated phenomenon or a leading indicator of broader economic slowdown, and whether the Fed responds with a cautious small rate cut or is forced into a comprehensive easing cycle.

When Bitcoin and gold decline together under liquidity shocks, traders find all asset quotes flickering in red on their screens. A hedge fund manager wrote in a review: “This isn’t about rotating between a few assets; it’s everyone in the trading hall scrambling simultaneously for the lifeboat to the exit.” The market is waiting for the next clear macro signal, and the blinking numbers on the Gate market page are the most direct and honest vote of global capital in the face of this uncertainty.