5-Minute Guide to the Crypto "Fear and Greed Index": What stage is the market in as of February 2026?

Volatility and sentiment make up the pulse of the crypto market. The Fear and Greed Index functions like a thermometer, measuring the market sentiment temperature in real time. When Bitcoin’s price briefly fell below the $60,000 mark, the market sentiment index dropped to single digits.

This level of panic is comparable to the fear triggered by the TerraUSD stablecoin collapse in 2022. Historical cyclical patterns offer some clues: after similar extreme fear sentiments in the past, the market often brews a short-term rebound opportunity.

Market Thermometer

The Cryptocurrency Fear and Greed Index is a numerical indicator that quantifies market sentiment. It analyzes multiple dimensions such as price volatility, market momentum, social media sentiment, survey data, and trading volume to provide investors with an intuitive reference for market mood. The index ranges from 0 to 100, with lower values indicating greater fear and higher values indicating greed. Generally, when the index drops below 25, it is considered “extreme fear,” often signaling an oversold market.

On February 6, 2026, the Fear and Greed Index fell to 9, reaching its lowest level since June 2022. This marks a rare extreme state of market sentiment, comparable to the panic caused by the TerraUSD collapse in 2022.

The Market Pulse in Data

In early February 2026, Bitcoin experienced intense volatility, briefly dropping below $60,000, about 50% below its all-time high set in October 2025. This decline directly reflected worsening market sentiment.

Accompanying the price drop was a staggering increase in liquidation volume. According to CoinGlass data, around 58,600 traders were liquidated within 24 hours before and after February 6, 2026, with total liquidation amount reaching $2.665 billion. Long positions accounted for $2.314 billion, far exceeding the $351 million in short liquidations, indicating excessive bullish bets by market participants.

Another factor impacting market confidence is the flow of institutional funds. Data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs listed in the U.S. have recently experienced significant net outflows. This withdrawal of institutional capital further weakens buying pressure. According to Gate data, as of February 9, 2026, Bitcoin was trading at $70,466.3, rebounding from recent lows, with a 24-hour increase of 1.69%, and a market cap of $1.41 trillion.

Historical Backtesting After Extremes

Analyzing historical data helps us understand the current market position. When the Fear and Greed Index drops into the extreme fear zone (usually below 20), it often corresponds to a market bottom.

According to Alternative.me, such lows below 10 are relatively rare. The last time this occurred was in June 2022, when the TerraUSD collapse caused widespread panic in the crypto market. After that extreme fear, the market found support in the short term and began a recovery rally. Notably, historical data suggests that when market sentiment reaches extreme fear, most negative news has already been digested.

Market sentiment cycles tend to lead price cycles. Extreme fear may be a sign that the market is approaching a bottom.

Institutional “Pricing” and Market Turning Points

Institutional investor behavior significantly influences market cycles. When the Fear and Greed Index hits extreme values, different institutions adopt varied strategies.

Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, recently revised his long-term Bitcoin price forecast, lowering the 2026 year-end target from $300,000 to $150,000. This adjustment reflects institutional responses to changing market sentiment.

Meanwhile, Galaxy Digital’s research head, Alex Thorn, predicts that Bitcoin’s downward trend could accelerate further, with prices potentially falling below $60,000 per coin.

Forecast contracts on the crypto analysis platform Polymarket show diverging views among traders on Bitcoin’s future. Some contracts indicate an 82% probability that Bitcoin will fall below $65,000 this year, while the probability of dropping below $55,000 has risen to about 60%.

These institutional opinions and market forecasts together paint a complex picture of current sentiment. Capital flows and strategic adjustments by institutions are often key indicators of market cycle shifts.

The规律 of Fear and Greed Cycles

Crypto market sentiment cycles show a clear correlation with price cycles. Typically, market sentiment goes through four main stages: accumulation, uptrend, distribution, and downtrend.

Low levels of the Fear and Greed Index often mark the end of the accumulation phase. At this point, sentiment is extremely pessimistic, but savvy investors begin building positions in preparation for the next rally.

In the late stage of a bull market, when the index remains high (usually above 75), the market is often in the distribution phase, with early investors taking profits and volatility increasing.

Currently, the market is transitioning from a downtrend to an accumulation phase. Bitcoin has fallen about 50% from its all-time high, and sentiment has dropped into the extreme fear zone in the single digits. These features are similar to the behavior at the end of previous downtrends.

Based on data from Gate, the average Bitcoin price in 2026 is projected to be $70,791.3, with potential fluctuations between $57,340.95 and $91,320.77. By 2031, Bitcoin could reach $149,511.29, but potential returns compared to current prices should be approached with caution.

How Will the Cycle Pendulum Swing?

Market sentiment and price fluctuations interact dynamically, creating a balance. When the Fear and Greed Index reaches extreme values, the market often self-corrects, usually accompanied by significant volatility.

Various factors can trigger shifts in sentiment. Changes in the macro environment, such as Federal Reserve monetary policy, influence overall risk appetite. Key signals to watch include: reversals in institutional capital flows, growth in stablecoin market cap, and on-chain activity recovery. These factors form the basis for shifts in market sentiment.

Currently, Bitcoin’s short-term support level is around $60,000, a level tested multiple times. Holding this support could help ease panic and create conditions for sentiment recovery. Market participants’ behavior patterns are also evolving. As institutional investors increase their market share, volatility in sentiment cycles may become more moderate but will not disappear entirely.

As Bitcoin struggles to rebound from the $60,000 threshold, strategists are closely monitoring every small move in the Fear and Greed Index. According to Gate data, as of February 9, 2026, Bitcoin’s price has recovered to $70,466.3, with a 24-hour increase of 1.69%. The crypto market always swings between fear and greed, and cycle turning points are often hidden in extreme emotions. Historical data shows that when the index drops below 10, the market is often at a stage bottom. There is nothing new under the sun; the sentiment cycle repeats like tides, and every extreme moment is building strength for the next cycle.