Trump predicts the Dow will surge to 100,000 points. Can the crypto market catch the rallying train?

Eastern Time, February 6th, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 50,000 points for the first time, with market sentiment high. Subsequently, Trump posted on Truth Social, attributing this milestone to his tariff policies, and boldly predicted that the Dow would soar to 100,000 points before the end of his term.

This statement immediately drew global market attention. This is not the first time Trump has made similar “call” moves; in the past, his remarks have indeed triggered short-term volatility in U.S. stocks and even crypto assets.

The Phenomenon of Political “Call” Predictions

Trump’s prophecy of the “Dow 100,000” shares the same core logic as his previous public statements. He directly attributed the new high in the stock market to his “great tariff policies,” emphasizing that “everything Trump says is correct.”

This mode of strongly linking market performance to personal policies has become his unique style of market communication.

Historical similar remarks have triggered immediate market reactions. For example, in April 2025, when the market plummeted due to tariff fears, Trump posted on Truth Social saying, “Now is a great time to buy.” Hours later, he announced a suspension of most tariffs, and U.S. stocks surged immediately, with the S&P 500 rising by as much as 9.5% in a single day.

A more direct connection appeared in May 2025, during a press conference on the US-UK trade agreement, when Trump publicly stated, “You’d better buy stocks now.” That day, not only did U.S. stocks soar, but Bitcoin’s price also broke through the $100,000 mark.

Market Reality and Sentiment Divergence

The enthusiasm of political rhetoric has not fully masked the recent cold reality in the crypto market. The much-anticipated “Trump rally” seems to have ended prematurely.

The gains accumulated before Trump returned to the White House have been completely erased; Bitcoin’s price has fallen more than 50% from its all-time high and is currently hovering around $61,000.

For example, on February 9th, data from the Gate platform shows clear signs of panic. According to Gate Square Daily, the crypto panic index has fallen to 7, indicating the market is in “extreme fear” territory. This fear is also reflected in specific tokens, such as the Solana-based gaming token CWAR, which is currently priced at $0.000633, down 70.36% over the past year.

Funds are fleeing. According to Bloomberg, over $740 million was withdrawn from more than 140 crypto-themed ETFs in just one day on Wednesday. This starkly contrasts with the euphoric mood when Trump first promised to make the U.S. a “crypto capital.”

The Path to 100,000 Points and the Capital Gap

Rising from 50,000 to 100,000 points in the Dow indicates a 100% increase over three years. This is not just a simple number game; behind it lies the massive demand for capital flow.

According to analysis, achieving this goal would require approximately $15 trillion of new equity capital injection, which would constitute the 30 components of the Dow. This demands daily trading volumes and capital inflows at a scale far beyond current levels.

Some financial institutions are relatively cautious about the 2026 forecast. For example, Bank of America predicts the Dow might be between 50,000 and 51,000 points, while Deutsche Bank is more optimistic, seeing around 54,000 points. However, these predictions still fall far short of 100,000.

Currently, the Dow’s daily trading volume is about 775 million shares. The market needs a structural transformation to absorb such enormous capital flows. Whether this path can be realized ultimately depends on fundamentals: sustained corporate earnings growth, productivity improvements driven by AI and other technologies, and avoiding major geopolitical or policy shocks.

The Transmission of Market Sentiment

There exists a subtle sentiment transmission mechanism between traditional stock markets and crypto markets, providing a logical basis for Trump’s “call” to indirectly influence the crypto market.

When Trump’s optimistic comments about the stock market boost overall investor risk appetite, some capital seeking higher risk-adjusted returns may spill over into the crypto market. This transmission is more evident during periods of ample liquidity and high market sentiment.

Cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, are sometimes seen as a “risk sentiment” barometer. The strong performance of the Dow may be interpreted by some market participants as a sign of a stable macroeconomic environment and ample liquidity, and this optimism could spread across the entire digital asset space.

More importantly, the overall policy framework of the Trump administration, including its pro-crypto stance and relaxed regulation, provides long-term narrative support for the market. Even if short-term prices fluctuate violently, the certainty of this policy environment itself can serve as a valuation support for crypto assets.

Finding Certainty Amid Volatility

In the face of the tension between political rhetoric-driven market expectations and actual volatility, rational investors need to establish a robust response framework. Over-reliance on the statements of a single political figure for investment decisions has been proven risky by recent market pullbacks.

Investors should return to fundamentals. For example, for tokens like CWAR, their long-term value depends more on user growth in the underlying game, ecosystem activity, and the overall development of the Solana network. Additionally, macro liquidity indicators, such as the Federal Reserve’s interest rate policy trajectory, will have a fundamental impact on all risk assets, including stocks and crypto.

Diversification is key to risk management. This means avoiding excessive concentration of capital in assets that are highly sensitive to a single narrative (whether “Trump rally” or “AI frenzy”).

On platforms like Gate, investors can easily access a wide range of crypto and non-crypto assets, utilize dual-currency investment tools for strategic allocation, or follow insights shared by experienced traders on Gate Square.

Summary

On February 9th, just days after Trump’s prediction, Bitcoin rebounded, reclaiming the $71,000 level, with a 24-hour increase of 2.25%. This volatility itself indicates that market sentiment remains volatile and that bulls and bears are engaged in fierce competition.

Investors are debating whether this is the start of a new rebound or just another technical pullback.

Meanwhile, professional market analysis firms have begun dissecting that seemingly simple math problem: for the Dow to rise from 50,000 to 100,000 points, it would require approximately $15 trillion in new capital. This implies a continuous influx of massive funds daily, and whether the market structure can withstand this remains a huge unknown.