Quantum threats are overrated? CoinShares report states that only 0.05% of Bitcoin faces substantial risk

A recent concern circulating in the Bitcoin market is that advances in quantum computing could threaten Bitcoin’s cryptographic security and even render its value storage function ineffective.

According to the latest report released by the globally renowned digital asset management firm CoinShares, this risk has been significantly exaggerated, with only about 10,200 Bitcoins potentially facing a threat that could cause substantial market disruption, accounting for approximately 0.05% of the total supply.

Risk Reassessment

The threat posed by quantum computing to Bitcoin has recently become a focal point of discussion among institutional investors. In January of this year, Christopher Wood, an analyst at investment bank Jefferies, removed all 10% of Bitcoin from his model portfolio due to concerns over quantum risk. Wood stated that while he does not believe quantum issues will cause a sharp short-term impact on Bitcoin prices, from a long-term retirement investment perspective, the foundational concept of Bitcoin as a store of value is no longer sufficiently solid.

This decision was based on a widely circulated study. In May 2025, researchers at Chaincode Labs estimated that between 20% and 50% of circulating Bitcoin could be vulnerable to attacks using quantum key extraction techniques.

Precise Analysis

CoinShares’ report directly challenges this estimate, arguing that these figures conflate risks that would actually impact very different categories. The analysis scope is limited to traditional “pay-to-public-key” addresses. In these addresses, the public key is permanently stored on the blockchain, theoretically making them more susceptible to future attacks by quantum computers.

CoinShares estimates that approximately 1.6 million Bitcoins are stored in P2PK addresses, about 8% of the total Bitcoin supply. However, the key point is that only about 10,200 Bitcoins are stored in sufficiently large addresses; if stolen, they could trigger “significant market turmoil.”

The remaining Bitcoins are dispersed across over 32,000 independent UTXOs, with an average of only about 50 Bitcoins per UTXO. The report notes that even in the most optimistic quantum computing scenarios, cracking these small, dispersed UTXOs would require an extremely long time.

Industry Perspectives Diverge

Market perceptions of the quantum threat vary significantly, directly influencing investment decisions and market sentiment:

Galaxy Digital recently clarified that a Bitcoin sell-off of up to $9 billion was unrelated to quantum computing risks, correcting misconceptions in the market.

Blockstream CEO Adam Back is more optimistic, believing that it will take at least 20 to 40 years for quantum computing to pose an actual threat to Bitcoin.

Technical Barriers

From a technical standpoint, the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin security is severely overestimated. CoinShares’ report points out that there is a huge gap between the capabilities of the most powerful quantum computers today and what is needed to crack Bitcoin’s encryption. To successfully crack a public key in one day, a fault-tolerant quantum computer with 13 million physical qubits would be required. This capability is about 100,000 times larger than the largest quantum computer currently available.

Ledger’s Chief Technology Officer Charles Guillemet explained to CoinShares, “Cracking current asymmetric encryption requires millions of qubits. Google’s current quantum computer, Willow, has only 105 qubits. And each additional qubit exponentially increases the difficulty of maintaining system stability.” To crack a key within an hour, a system about 3 million times more powerful than existing hardware would be needed. These figures clearly show that the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin is far from imminent.

Governance Disputes

Faced with the potential quantum threat, there are disagreements within the Bitcoin community on how to respond. Some well-known figures, including cryptopunk Jameson Lopp, advocate for soft forks to destroy Bitcoin that is vulnerable to quantum attacks.

CoinShares holds a different view, believing that destroying Bitcoins that may be held passively by inactive holders would violate Bitcoin’s property rights principles. “I think the idea of destroying someone else’s Bitcoin is completely contrary to the spirit of Bitcoin,” said Christopher Bendiksen, CoinShares’ Head of Bitcoin Research, in a report last August.

CoinShares also warns that before quantum-secure address formats are fully validated, premature adoption should be avoided, as early implementation could introduce serious vulnerabilities and waste development resources. Instead, the firm recommends a gradual transition strategy.

Market and Future Outlook

CoinShares’ report was released during a period of market turbulence. Bitcoin’s price has fallen nearly in half from its peak of over $126,000 in October 2025. Concerns over quantum threats are among the factors contributing to recent price volatility.

Despite market fluctuations, investments in quantum computing preparedness are accelerating. For example, Project Eleven recently completed a Series A funding round of $20 million, with a valuation of $120 million, dedicated to building post-quantum tools for crypto networks.

Meanwhile, traditional financial institutions are also paying attention to this issue. A 2025 Federal Reserve research report introduced the concept of “collect now, decrypt later,” noting that while cryptocurrency networks can deploy post-quantum cryptography to secure the network, previously recorded transaction data remains vulnerable to future quantum computer attacks.

On Ethereum, co-founder Vitalik Buterin has stated that blockchains should actively address emerging quantum threats rather than wait until the last minute. The Ethereum Foundation has recently established a dedicated post-quantum security team.

Bitcoin’s current price on Gate is $70,722.2, up 1.98% in the past 24 hours, with a 24-hour trading volume of $800.61 million. Market analysis projects that by the end of 2026, Bitcoin’s average price will be around $70,791.3, with a range between approximately $57,340.95 and $91,320.77. In the long term, by 2031, Bitcoin could reach a price of about $149,511.29.

As the shadow of quantum threats gradually dissipates through rational analysis, the technological evolution of the Bitcoin network continues. From P2PK to more secure address formats, from traditional cryptography to post-quantum cryptography, every technological upgrade tests the resilience of this decentralized system.