What just happened shouldnāt exist statistically speaking. Yet here we are. In ONE WEEK, the market printed THREE separate 6-sigma events: ā Bonds ā Silver ā Gold Thatās not āvolatility.ā Thatās the system under stress. Last week, Japanese 30-year bonds had a full 6-sigma move. That market is the backbone of global funding. When it snaps, itās never random. Two days later, silver went insane: A near 5-sigma rally, then a 6-sigma dump in the same session. Thatās not trading thatās forced liquidation. Now look at gold. Up 23% in less than a month, creeping into 6-sigma territory. Three markets. Days apart. Different asset classes. That has never happened before. Quick reality check: 1-sigma = noise 3-sigma = rare 5-sigma = extreme 6-sigma = āonce in a lifetimeā 6-sigma only shows up when something breaks: 1987 crash. 2020 COVID panic. Swiss franc shock. Negative oil. And now weāre seeing it again and again. These moves arenāt caused by news headlines. They come from leverage, crowded trades, margin calls, collateral stress. When bonds crack, leverage shrinks. When leverage shrinks, markets are forced to sell some things⦠and panic-buy protection in others. Thatās why gold and silver are screaming. Rates reflect trust in governments. Precious metals reflect trust in money itself. When both start shaking at the same time, youāre looking at a shift in the monetary regime. Iāll stop here and share more tomorrow.
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šØ THIS IS NOT NORMAL. AT ALL.
What just happened shouldnāt exist statistically speaking.
Yet here we are.
In ONE WEEK, the market printed THREE separate 6-sigma events:
ā Bonds
ā Silver
ā Gold
Thatās not āvolatility.ā
Thatās the system under stress.
Last week, Japanese 30-year bonds had a full 6-sigma move.
That market is the backbone of global funding. When it snaps, itās never random.
Two days later, silver went insane:
A near 5-sigma rally, then a 6-sigma dump in the same session.
Thatās not trading thatās forced liquidation.
Now look at gold.
Up 23% in less than a month, creeping into 6-sigma territory.
Three markets.
Days apart.
Different asset classes.
That has never happened before.
Quick reality check:
1-sigma = noise
3-sigma = rare
5-sigma = extreme
6-sigma = āonce in a lifetimeā
6-sigma only shows up when something breaks:
1987 crash.
2020 COVID panic.
Swiss franc shock.
Negative oil.
And now weāre seeing it again and again.
These moves arenāt caused by news headlines.
They come from leverage, crowded trades, margin calls, collateral stress.
When bonds crack, leverage shrinks.
When leverage shrinks, markets are forced to sell some thingsā¦
and panic-buy protection in others.
Thatās why gold and silver are screaming.
Rates reflect trust in governments.
Precious metals reflect trust in money itself.
When both start shaking at the same time, youāre looking at a shift in the monetary regime.
Iāll stop here and share more tomorrow.