🚨🇺🇸 FOMC today. What to expect ⁉️⚡️

Quick pre-fire thoughts on what we’re likely to hear in the statement, from Powell, and how markets may react.
🔹️Rates
Pause is a lock. After three cuts from September to December, a wait and see stance is pure consensus.
🔹️Macro backdrop
1️⃣ Labor market has cooled without panic. Some wage components still point higher, which keeps inflation sticky.
2️⃣ Part of the cooling can be linked to ICE migration raids and the closed southern border.
3️⃣ Beige Book shows stable to moderate growth, weak hiring and moderate price pressures. The key theme is uncertainty. Businesses keep highlighting planning issues tied to trade policy, import costs and headline noise.
🔹️Statement expectations
Core message stays the same. Growth is moderate, labor has cooled, inflation is still above target.
What may change is the balance of risks. In Sep Oct Dec, downside labor risks were heavily emphasized. Now, with unemployment already priced in, the Committee can move back toward a neutral framing. Risks look more two-sided and the Fed will carefully assess incoming data. Less labor insurance, more balanced focus on inflation and jobs.
🔹️Press conference
Powell speaks the language of a pause, but not a dovish one. This is a controlling pause. Expect emphasis on sticky underlying inflation, ugly Q1 seasonality and new tariff uncertainty as a source of short-term inflation noise. That’s why the Fed won’t pre-commit to the pace of future cuts.
No attempt to revive hike risk. The baseline is a resilient but more fragile economy. After softer payrolls, the Fed won’t tighten financial conditions with words. Discipline and data dependence.
🔹️Market impact
Base case is a slightly hawkish hold. Powell leans against expanding easing expectations. USD gets some support.
For crypto, this usually looks like a local short or capped upside for 24 to 48 hours. After that, DXY and yields take over.
Main thing to watch is how he sells the pause.

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