#美联储利率决议临近 The Federal Reserve's current interest rate decision is widely expected by the market to maintain a hawkish (hawkish) stance, but there is also a possibility of signaling a future shift in tone. The mainstream forecast is that there will be no rate cut in January, and the market's real focus is on the statements made during Powell's press conference—whether it will be "temporarily holding steady" or "short-term rate cuts are truly unlikely."

Specifically, authoritative institutions like Goldman Sachs and market analysts generally believe that the Fed is likely to keep interest rates unchanged at this meeting. Powell and several voting members support a "wait-and-see" approach and maintaining a tough stance to curb inflation, mainly concerned about inflation reigniting. If Powell emphasizes inflation pressures and policy independence during the meeting, it would be a standard hawkish signal, discouraging the market from expecting rapid rate cuts in the near term, which is bearish for Bitcoin and other risk assets.
However, there are subtle variables. Multiple foreign media analyses suggest that if Powell hints that "pause in rate cuts is only temporary" or "there is room to ease within 2026," it would signal a future dovish (loose) shift, immediately boosting market sentiment and potentially causing a short-term rebound in risk assets.
It is important to note that this meeting coincides with increased domestic political pressure in the US, such as the Justice Department's investigations into the Trump administration and the replacement of key officials, which makes it more challenging for Powell to maintain a hawkish stance. However, it may also lead him to be more cautious in his language to avoid excessive market volatility. Overall, the official tone leans more hawkish, but market attention is subtly shifting.
In the short term, market volatility cannot be ruled out. If the language is hawkish, assets like Bitcoin may face pressure. If a rate cut window is signaled, the market could rebound quickly. Investors are advised to closely monitor the meeting statements, set risk protections, and respond rationally.