#DOGEETF上市纳斯达克 Dogecoin is stuck in the critical demand zone: ETF positive news has arrived, why is the price still unable to break out?

The price forecast for Dogecoin faces certain pressure because it is currently fluctuating around an important demand zone within an overall downtrend structure. Recent price movements reflect not just short-term volatility but structural issues. This situation has arisen in the context of 21Shares announcing the launch of a Dogecoin ETF on NASDAQ, which means Dogecoin has gained regulatory exposure. The question is whether this catalyst can change the existing price structure or if it is merely challenging the stability of the current structure.

How the 21Shares ETF influences Dogecoin price forecasts

The spot Dogecoin ETF launched by 21Shares (ticker: TDOG) introduces a new background for Dogecoin price predictions. The ETF offers a 1:1 DOGE exposure through a regulated exchange, aiming to attract investors who prefer trading through traditional broker channels, reducing reliance on crypto wallets and exchanges. This move makes Dogecoin one of the meme coins with institutional-level access, expanding market coverage but not directly stimulating spot demand. Although the announcement was made, Dogecoin's price movement remained relatively flat without significant upward movement, indicating that the price is still dominated by structural factors. The ETF's approval process influenced the market beforehand, giving investors time to build positions in advance. Therefore, the price did not show a sustained rally, confirming the view that “accessibility cannot override trend dynamics.”

For Dogecoin's price forecast, the role of this ETF is mainly to reinforce structural factors rather than directly drive price movements, meaning Dogecoin's future price will depend more on market confirmation than on expectations.

Price trend analysis and forecast
As of press time, Dogecoin's market cap is approximately $0.124, still within an important demand zone. Since early September, Dogecoin's price has been under continuous downward channel influence, so the forecast remains centered around this channel. Under the current structure, Dogecoin's price is stable around $0.11734, with previous buyers stepping in to slow the downward pressure. This response indicates demand at the current price level but has not yet changed the overall market structure. Earlier this month, demand rebounded in an attempt to push the price higher but encountered resistance at the supply zone of $0.1566. Sellers did not rush to act but instead adopted strategic positioning in the resistance area above. The price also failed to break above the 50-day moving average (around $0.13399), so Dogecoin continues to hover in the lower half of the downward channel, limiting upward potential. These factors collectively weaken the rebound momentum, preventing sustained expansion.

Regarding future price predictions, Dogecoin's trend shows a clear path: if the price can rebound and break above the 50-day moving average, holding this level, it may continue to break through the key supply zone. If Dogecoin can effectively break through this area, the price could return to the $0.200 mark, which was last touched in October. If the price fails to hold the support at $0.11734, it may continue to decline within the downward channel, which will dominate future price movements.

Conclusion
Dogecoin's price forecast remains primarily influenced by structural factors rather than mere narrative expansion. Although the ETF launch has strengthened the long-term trend, it has not changed the control over the price trend. Unless Dogecoin breaks through key dynamic resistance levels, the current consolidation within the downward channel will persist. If the price fails to hold above $0.11734, further declines are possible. Conversely, if it can continue to hold above the key supply zone, the market outlook for Dogecoin could be reshaped.