Bitcoin ETF for two years: When Wall Street stays silent and holds a liquidity lock of $25 billion

January 10, 2024, marks a point of almost no return. Not because the SEC suddenly changed its stance on Bitcoin, but because at that time, Bitcoin spot exchange products were approved. One day later, the first Bitcoin ETF fund in the US began trading, and on its first day alone, $4.6 billion worth of shares changed hands. That figure is not just a record—it signals an impending shift in power.

Two years after that event, the big picture becomes clear: Bitcoin is no longer the asset of crypto insiders. It has become part of the mainstream financial system, where pension funds, advisory portfolios, and large asset management firms can easily access it without needing to understand blockchain or wallet addresses.

The Path from $56.63 billion in Flows

As of January 9, 2026, US-based Bitcoin spot ETFs have attracted $56.63 billion in net inflows. But this number hides a more complex story: not all of that money is from new investors. Most of it is circulation.

GBTC—Grayscale’s Bitcoin fund, once considered the only “blue-chip” before ETFs emerged—recorded -$25.41 billion in outflows. Meanwhile, BlackRock’s IBIT received +$62.65 billion. What does this discrepancy reflect? Quite simply: investors who were held back by the old structure, high fees, and complex processes of GBTC are now seeking entry into newer, cheaper, more liquid products.

This happens because using ETFs is not an addition; it’s a replacement. Before ETFs, owning Bitcoin through a major financial institution involved overcoming a long chain of hurdles: finding a custodian, complying with standards for exotic assets, dealing with tax and structural issues. After ETFs, you just need to… buy it like any other stock.

From Bitcoin to “a product”

What the SEC did in January 2024 is not outright support for Bitcoin. Chairman Gary Gensler even called it approval of a structure, not broad endorsement. But that nuance gets lost in translation. The market hears: Bitcoin has received a trading code like any other mainstream asset.

The path to this point has been long. Bitcoin ETF proposals have been repeatedly rejected for over a decade due to SEC concerns about market integrity and oversight. What changed was a ruling in August 2023 by the DC Circuit Court of Appeals, when a judge ruled that the SEC acted “arbitrarily” in denying spot Bitcoin ETFs while approving Bitcoin futures ETFs. That decision forced the SEC to explain its inconsistency.

For a long time, many analysts pointed out that what mattered most was not whether Bitcoin was approved, but who was managing the flow of money. On January 10, 2024, the answer became clear: Wall Street. Not in the sense that Wall Street owns Bitcoin—rather, that Wall Street owns the layers of wrappers, distribution channels, and tools through which millions of people access Bitcoin.

When flows become language

The average daily net flow into Bitcoin spot ETFs has reached $113.3 million over the past two years. This may seem small compared to Bitcoin’s daily global volume, but it’s not insignificant in the context of a fixed supply asset and influence buyers that can impact prices.

Why does this matter? Because it creates a new way to track Bitcoin demand. Previously, traders relied on blockchain data—abstract indicators of how users interacted with the network. Now, you can look at US stock exchanges, check ETF websites, and see how much money flows into or out of Bitcoin funds each day. This is well-tracked, publicly available data, easy to compare with other flows.

This changes how institutions think about Bitcoin. Instead of asking “Is this a good asset?”, they ask “Is there anything wrong with using Bitcoin as an allocation like other assets?” The second question is easier to answer.

The two extremes

Extreme days reveal an interesting scenario. The day with the highest inflows recorded +$1.374 billion, while the day with the largest outflows was −$1.114 billion. Such sessions are not normal, but they are not rare either.

When these events occur, ETF flows are not just a signal of demand—they become the story. Traders monitor it, media report on it, and prices react accordingly. In markets where flow channels have enormous influence, the market naturally follows those channels.

This concentration offers both benefits and risks. On one hand, it makes flows more efficient: narrower spreads, better market depth, and large trades can be executed without causing excessive movement. On the other hand, it means that decisions by a handful of firms can create ripple effects across the entire system.

The unraveling of the old structure

The picture is incomplete without considering what happened to GBTC. This fund existed before Bitcoin became a household term. It allowed traditional investors to hold Bitcoin without custody or managing keys. But it also came with complex structures: discounts and premiums relative to NAV(, redemption restrictions, and higher management fees than similar ETFs.

When ETFs emerged, investors had options. GBTC transitioned into an ETF in 2024, but by then, many had moved to other products. Large outflows do not necessarily mean institutions are selling Bitcoin; it means they are shifting from a complex structure to a simpler one, from high fees to lower fees.

New standards for Bitcoin and beyond

What has happened over the past two years has set new expectations for the entire crypto space. Bitcoin has proven that a crypto asset can be packaged, distributed at scale, and traded through mainstream channels without major operational issues or intervention.

This success is a roadmap. When Ethereum ETFs were later approved, there was little controversy. When other cryptocurrencies are proposed for trading products, participants have a clear reference point. We know how large initial liquidity can be, how long it takes for an asset to normalize, and how quickly flows tend to concentrate around one or two dominant products.

Bitcoin is now an asset that advisors can discuss, pension funds can hold, and portfolios can rebalance without requiring specialized blockchain knowledge. That is a genuine structural transformation.

The road ahead: Three factors to watch

The first two years proved that the “mechanism” works. What comes next focuses on behavior once that mechanism becomes the new normal.

First: Flows from ETFs are now a different regime. Days of accelerating or decelerating net flows are not just signs of demand; they form the basis for market commentary and positioning. When flows slow or reverse, commentary shifts accordingly.

Second: Distribution tends to deepen over time. The longer a fund exists without issues, the more platforms, advisors, and institutions see it as a normal part of a portfolio. And once it becomes normal, it’s no longer traded as a fad but as an allocation.

Third: Concentration offers both benefits and risks. Dominant funds can make markets more efficient, but they also become focal points for stories. When stories, attention, and flows concentrate, markets can move in a single direction simultaneously.

The current situation is not a secret takeover. It’s an empowerment. Traditional finance has built an efficient, scalable pathway into Bitcoin. After two years, that pathway is large enough to influence how Bitcoin is valued daily. And from that perspective, Wall Street is no longer an obscure actor—it’s part of the market structure.