XRP Triangle Trading Pattern Under Pressure: Technical Signals Warn of Potential Breakdown

XRP is currently trading at $1.93, down 2.47% over the past 24 hours, with the token struggling to maintain support within a descending triangle formation. The chart structure suggests a critical junction ahead—but market indicators are flashing warning signs that the breakdown scenario may be more likely than a bullish reversal.

Three Market Signals Converge Toward Distribution

When analyzing XRP’s current technical setup, three distinct layers of market behavior are moving in alignment, each independently pointing toward weakness:

Retail Participation Drying Up

The Money Flow Index reveals a growing disconnect between price action and actual buying interest. Between December 18-27, XRP traded higher while MFI declined—a classic sign that retail traders are selling into rallies rather than accumulating on dips. This retail selling pressure has pinned the price to the lower boundary of the triangle trading pattern, preventing any meaningful test of the upper resistance level.

Long-Term Conviction Holders Exiting

The situation becomes more concerning when examining HODL Waves data. Long-term holders (those holding for 23+ years) reduced their holdings from 14.26% of total supply in late November to approximately 5.66% by late December. This isn’t normal volatility-driven movement—this represents a deliberate exit by the most committed participants, removing a critical support layer beneath the market.

Capital Flow Turning Negative

The Chaikin Money Flow indicator reinforces this bearish narrative. CMF remains in negative territory and is trending along a descending trendline, signaling that large capital inflows are weakening relative to outflows. Even as XRP trades sideways, demand is subtly losing ground to supply pressure—a setup that historically precedes consolidation breakdowns.

The Price Levels That Will Determine Direction

XRP has been trapped between $1.90 and $1.81 since early December. The $1.90 level, which served as support weeks earlier, now functions as resistance. A recapture of $1.90 followed by a push toward $1.99 would represent the first meaningful counter-signal to current weakness and could energize the bullish triangle trading thesis.

However, the bear case is sharper. A break below $1.81 would confirm a descent out of the triangle pattern entirely, potentially opening a path toward $1.68 and—if selling accelerates—down to $1.52. Neither the technical structure nor the market sentiment has yet provided evidence that reverses this downside risk.

The triangle trading pattern remains intact, but with retail, institutional conviction, and capital flows all aligning toward distribution, the probability tilts toward a breakdown unless a clear reversal signal emerges soon.