Bear Market Cycle History Reveals When Bitcoin Will Hit the Next Bottom

Crypto analyst Ali Martinez has just revealed an interesting discovery about the Bitcoin cycle: three bear markets in history follow an extremely consistent time pattern. According to Martinez, this model is not random but a repeatable phenomenon that can be predicted.

The Three Cycle Law: From 1,064 Days to Peak to 364 Days to Bottom

Historical data shows a strange rhythm: Bitcoin takes an average of 1,064 days to go from the previous bottom to the peak, then 364 days to fall to the next bottom. This law has repeated exactly in three major market cycles.

First bear cycle (2015-2018): Bitcoin rose from the January 2015 bottom to the December 2017 peak in exactly 1,064 days. Afterwards, the market took 364 days to reach a new bottom in December 2018, dropping 84%.

Second bear cycle (2018-2022): From the December 2018 bottom, Bitcoin took another 1,064 days to reach the November 2021 peak. The subsequent correction phase lasted 364 days, with Bitcoin hitting a bottom of around $15,500 in November 2022, down 77% from the peak.

The Three Bears and the Current Cycle: Predicting Bitcoin’s Bottom

The third bear cycle is currently unfolding following the same pattern. Bitcoin reached a peak of $126,200 in October 2025, after rising from the November 2022 bottom in 1,064 days. If this law continues, the 364-day correction phase will end around October 2026, which is about 288 days away.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $93.03K, indicating the market is still in the correction process.

Next Bottom Level: $37,500?

The previous three bears caused an average decline of about 80% (2017-2018 down 84%, 2021-2022 down 77%). If history repeats itself with a similar drop from the $126,200 peak, Bitcoin could reach $37,500 in October 2026.

Martinez emphasizes that the consistency across the three previous cycles suggests that this phenomenon is not coincidental but reflects an inherent structure within the Bitcoin market cycle.