Bear market rally: Bitcoin's rise may not be sustainable, says CryptoQuant

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: Bear Market Rally: Bitcoin’s Rise May Not Be Sustainable, Says CryptoQuant Original Link: A recent recovery in Bitcoin’s price has more characteristics of a temporary move within a bear market than a consistent rebound, according to CryptoQuant analysis.

In a report released on Friday, the company stated that the approximately 21% increase recorded since November 21 fits the pattern known as a bear market rally, when the asset rises significantly but without changing the underlying negative structure.

According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin advanced after experiencing a nearly 19% decline and breaking below its 365-day moving average, an indicator the company uses as a dividing line between bullish and bearish market conditions. The loss of this level, the analysis suggests, confirmed the entry into a bear market cycle. Since then, despite the recovery, the asset has not yet managed to stabilize above this long-term average, currently around US$ 101,000.

Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, explained that this type of behavior has been observed in previous cycles. In 2022, Bitcoin also showed strong rebounds after falling below the 365-day moving average, fueling the perception that the worst was over. At that time, many investors even argued that the traditional four-year cycle had been invalidated and that a “supercycle” was underway. However, the price ultimately failed to retake this technical level and fell again, in a pattern that, according to the company, resembles what is seen now.

Despite some sporadic signs of improvement, demand remains weak, according to CryptoQuant. One of the indicators monitored is the Coinbase Price Premium, which measures whether U.S. buyers are paying a higher price for Bitcoin compared to offshore markets. This indicator briefly turned positive for the second time since mid-December, suggesting isolated episodes of spot buying by American investors, but without enough continuity to characterize a structural change.

The spot Bitcoin ETFs traded in the United States also contributed to a partial stabilization of the scenario by halting the intense selling pace observed in November, when about 54,000 Bitcoins were liquidated over a 30-day period.

Still, CryptoQuant emphasizes that this pause does not equate to a clear accumulation trend. In early 2026, net inflows total approximately 3,800 Bitcoins, a volume similar to the same period last year and well below what is typically seen in early phases of more robust bull markets.

On-chain data reinforce this cautious outlook. According to the company, spot demand continues to contract, with an estimated reduction of about 67,000 Bitcoins over the last 30 days. This indicator has remained in negative territory since late November 2025, which, in the analysts’ view, contrasts with more optimistic narratives that emerged after the recent price appreciation.

Another point highlighted in the report is the increase in Bitcoin flows to exchanges. After the recent rebound, inflows to exchanges rose to a seven-day moving average close to 39,000 Bitcoins, the highest level since late November. Historically, according to CryptoQuant, such movements after relief rallies tend to signal increased selling pressure, as investors transfer assets to platforms to realize profits or reduce exposure.

For the company, the combination of difficulty in retaking key technical levels, still-weak demand, and increased deposits on exchanges suggests that the market remains in a bearish phase, despite the recent price relief. While movements like these can be interpreted as the beginning of a recovery, CryptoQuant assesses that, from a fundamental and technical perspective, Bitcoin still does not show consistent signs that the bear market is over.