When indicators lie: why data distortion redefines investment strategy in 2025

The problem isn't inflation—it's that we no longer know if the numbers are real

In November, the US CPI registered a 2.7% year-over-year, a welcome drop from the previous 3.0% and below market expectations of 3.1%. On paper, the narrative is perfect: “controlled inflation, room for rate cuts, a bullish market.”

But here’s the uncomfortable part: John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, stated bluntly on December 19th that the November figure is contaminated by “technical factors.” The October government shutdown forced statisticians to use retroactive data and interpolate zero growth to fill gaps. The result is a smoothed inflation trajectory that does not reflect reality.

The Federal Reserve does not reject the number. What it rejects is using it as a political compass. And here lies the true distortion: when data lose credibility, policy stalls. Instead of aggressive cuts, the central bank opts to keep rates at 3.5%–3.75% and wait for December data to “verify the actual trend.”

Macroeconomics is no longer complex. It’s simply opaque.

Geopolitics returns as an inflation variable—and this time it’s not noise

While algorithms expected more rate cuts, something more dangerous was brewing in energy markets.

The United States has intensified its blockade on Venezuela. Not only has it confiscated three oil tankers loaded with Venezuelan crude, but it has also begun to choke off vessel departures and, with that, the regime’s fiscal revenues. The strategy is clear: graduated economic strangulation.

But there’s an even more volatile risk on the radar: Israel is evaluating a preemptive attack on Iran, based on intelligence suggesting Iran’s monthly missile production may have reached 3,000 units.

In the last confrontation, Iran managed to bypass Israeli air defenses with a massive missile barrage. The US had to intervene directly, deploying B-2 bombers to attack nuclear facilities and temporarily contain the conflict.

If Israel attacks without warning this time:

• Iran would retaliate with asymmetric missile strikes
• The US would be compelled to intervene again in depth
• The Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and the Suez Canal would enter maximum tension
• Oil prices would surge sharply, even under a global oversupply scenario
• Imported inflation would re-enter the global price system

The Middle East remains the heart of the petrodollar system. A geopolitical escalation not only affects energy prices: it destabilizes the monetary policy compass already fragile due to data distortion.

The market is shifting from optimistic algorithmic expectations to a risk-driven structure.

Three questions the traditional market cannot answer

When data are questionable, geopolitical risk is tangible, and monetary policy is in wait-and-see mode, the market changes its question.

From: “When will there be another rate cut?”

To:

• What yields are not dependent on the direction of monetary policy?
• What cash flows work independently of secondary market liquidity?
• What assets remain valid in an environment of high rates and extreme uncertainty?

The answers are not innovative. They have existed in the real world for years:

• Short-term US Treasury bonds: verifiable yields, backed by repayment capacity
• Credit assets with clear cash flow routes: real companies, real operations, real payments
• Structured commercial and consumer instruments: defined terms, predictable returns, limited risk

What’s scarce is not the existence of these assets. What’s scarce is to bring them onto the blockchain transparently, verifiably, and executable.

R2: adapt to the world, not predict it

In a context where:

• Macroeconomic data are technically distorted
• Geopolitical risks influence inflation again
• Monetary policy acts with extreme caution

R2 offers something different: a yield structure that does not depend on guessing a single direction.

What does it do?

• Does not require rate cuts to work. Yields come from real cash flows, not speculative capital gains
• Does not create the illusion of infinite liquidity in secondary markets. Users know the term, risk, and return from the start
• Does not promise inexplicable sources of returns. Every gain percentage is linked to real-world assets

Instead of predictions, it offers clarity:

• Treasury bonds and credit with defined maturities
• Traceable cash flows from origin to destination
• Yield structures that already work in high-rate environments

When data distortion makes policy unpredictable, when geopolitics makes inflation volatile, the importance of real yield does not diminish—it amplifies.

From “guess once” to “work always”

The inflection point is clear:

• Economic indicators are no longer reliably trustworthy
• Risk is no longer distant or contained
• Monetary policy is no longer unidirectional

In this scenario, what matters is no longer “guess the right direction.” It’s about building a yield structure that is valid under most possible macroeconomic scenarios.

R2 does not try to predict how the world will evolve. It guarantees something more fundamental: no matter how circumstances change, users will always know what their capital is doing, where each return comes from, and how each risk is managed.

That transparency and ability to function in uncertain scenarios—this is truly scarce in 2025.