The factors explaining the rise of Bitcoin at the beginning of 2026

Source: PortaldoBitcoin Original Title: The Factors Explaining Bitcoin’s Rise at the Beginning of 2026 Original Link: https://portaldobitcoin.uol.com.br/os-fatores-que-explicam-a-alta-do-bitcoin-neste-comeco-de-2026/ Bitcoin spent much of the last quarter of 2025 “in limbo.” After a sharp drop in October and November, it stagnated for weeks, with lower volume and a defensive mood among investors, until it gradually started to recover in December. Now, in 2026, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is gaining momentum again and trying to approach the symbolic level of US$ 100,000.

This Wednesday (14), Bitcoin again surpassed the US$ 95,000 mark and reached its highest price in two months as the market resumed signaling a willingness to take on more risk. According to Vanessa Oliveira, a Market Bitcoin analyst, the US CPI data (consumer inflation in the US) came in line with expectations and has already started to boost the market, due to the increased likelihood of future interest rate cuts, which benefits assets like Bitcoin.

“Additionally, we saw good inflows into BTC ETFs and an increased probability of the approval of the bill to regulate the crypto market in the US (Clarity Act),” she cites. Predictions market bets have exceeded 55% probability of the bill being approved in the Senate this Thursday, after senators presented a more favorable draft last Tuesday.

Vanessa also highlights that geopolitical tensions are increasing demand for alternative assets, reinforcing Bitcoin as an option during times of instability, and the breaking of important technical levels, such as the US$ 94,000 resistance, which attracted more buyers.

“During the same period, gold performed steadily or slightly positively, reacting to the same macro conditions but in a more defensive manner, showing a convergence of narratives between the two assets, although with different price movements,” the analyst concludes.

Meanwhile, QCP Capital pointed out that investors are returning to take more risks. “The ideal scenario continues, with the US labor market showing few signs of fragility and US inflation remaining stable. It seems that risk has become a viable option across all sectors, from stocks to precious metals, the dollar, and even cryptocurrencies,” the analysts assess.

But is this Bitcoin rally sustainable? The answer to the current moment comes less from an isolated fact and more from a convergence of situations, which has encouraged investors that, soon, we may retake the US$ 100,000 level.

The “real asset trade”

The most striking backdrop is that, while Bitcoin tries to regain ground, gold and silver have entered euphoria mode. In recent days, gold hit record prices above US$ 4,600 per ounce again, and silver broke US$ 90 for the first time, also at an all-time high.

This movement matters for Bitcoin for two reasons. First, because it reinforces the view that the world is buying “protection” and “scarcity” at the same time, a basket that includes precious metals and, for part of the market, also BTC. Second, because the metals rally has been fueled by factors that also tend to favor cryptocurrencies, such as geopolitical uncertainty and expectations of lower interest rates.

By way of comparison, gold jumped 65% in 2025, while Bitcoin remained almost stable. There is room for BTC to perform better than gold this year.

“Although gold and Bitcoin sometimes move together, their long-term correlation is only slightly positive, which we find attractive, even if somewhat counterintuitive,” say analysts specializing in digital assets, suggesting that Bitcoin could have better returns.

Behind all this, the variable that unites gold, silver, and Bitcoin is the same: the direction of US interest rates. The view of more subdued inflation reinforced at least the maintenance of interest rates in the short term, with higher chances of rate cuts throughout the year, which tends to improve sentiment for alternative assets. This is because the premium on safer assets, like Treasury bonds, falls with lower interest rates, leading investors to accept more risk for better returns.

Money returning to ETFs

The second fuel — and the most “measurable” — is the return of inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs. Compiled data shows that ETFs recorded US$ 753.7 million in net inflows on Tuesday (13), the highest since October 7.

“Inflows into Bitcoin ETFs represent a resurgence of institutional demand, signaling that investors are reallocating capital aggressively after a period of caution and risk reduction at the end of last year,” say research analysts.

In movements like this, the impact is not just psychological; it is real. When the flow enters, the vehicle needs to adjust, and this often creates buying pressure that the market feels almost immediately, especially after a period of weakness and more selective liquidity.

Analysts say that the flows reflect greater macroeconomic clarity, marked by the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data — which showed high but falling inflation — and progress in legislation regarding the structure of the cryptocurrency market.

Year-end adjustments

December and early January also carry their own dynamics. At the end of 2025, Bitcoin closed “wounded” and still well below October’s high and closer to US$ 90,000, with analysts describing the market as structurally strong but tactically fragile.

At the turn of the year, the market usually undergoes a “housekeeping” process that mixes tax considerations and risk management. In various jurisdictions, many investors seek to reduce their tax bill by realizing losses before the fiscal year ends, a strategy known as tax-loss harvesting.

The logic is simple: since tax is levied on realized capital gains, part of the market sells assets that are in the red in December to “lock in” the loss and offset gains from other investments in the same year.

This movement can increase selling pressure near the end of the year even when the asset’s thesis hasn’t changed, and then open space for rebuys and rebalancing in January, when demand returns and liquidity improves.

Beyond the fiscal factor, managers and traders rebalance and reduce risk to close the period with more “lean” portfolios, adjusting derivatives positions, recalibrating collaterals, realizing profits, and decreasing leverage in more volatile assets.

In crypto, this tends to amplify oscillations because the market has a large participation of futures and options: when risk appetite returns at the beginning of the year, rebalancing these structures can become additional fuel for the rally, especially if it coincides with new inflows (via ETFs) and a more favorable macro backdrop.

Geopolitics on the radar

Beyond the macro scenario, international news has served as a trigger for the narrative of Bitcoin as an alternative in turbulent times. “In the last week and a half, we have witnessed several global events that remind investors why Bitcoin was created in the first place,” say research analysts.

They cited Iran’s fiat currency collapse, recent events in Venezuela, and international tensions as significant “catalysts” for BTC.

Despite geopolitical news involving Venezuela and Iran, the market shows no concern. “Instead, it leans toward expectations of reaffirmed global leadership. Oil has gained a geopolitical premium, but the market overall has remained resilient. Abundant liquidity and the resurgence of global leadership are tools that will naturally lead to better performance and a risk appetite environment,” market analyses state.

In the end, Bitcoin’s rebound is less a “momentary rally” and more the result of the convergence of ongoing forces, with the market re-pricing protection and scarcity amid uncertainties. Gold and silver at record highs also drive the narrative, and institutional capital reappears more strongly. If this set continues, the return to US$ 100,000 may finally become a reality.