## The Venezuelan Factor and Pressure Fluctuations on Bitcoin: How Geopolitics Influence Cryptocurrency Prices

Recent days have shown how quickly geopolitical events can increase pressure on cryptocurrency markets and cause significant fluctuations. Bitcoin demonstrated resilient dynamics, reaching around $97,000 with an intraday gain of 1.71%. This movement resulted from a confluence of factors: the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, rising risk appetite among traders, and positive portfolio rebalancing toward digital assets.

## Liquidity Pressure and the Geza Energy Scenario

Arthur Hayes, co-founder of BitMEX, proposed an original hypothesis regarding the vertical driver of Bitcoin. In his view, potential U.S. intervention in Venezuelan affairs and control over oil resources could sharply increase liquidity supply in the U.S. Low energy prices reduce inflationary pressure, creating room for monetary easing.

Hayes emphasizes three key indicators to monitor: oil prices, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds, and bond volatility. If these parameters remain subdued, central bankers will have room to expand credit conditions. Historically, Bitcoin follows periods of increased liquidity when capital seeks yields in alternative assets.

## Technical Picture: Breaking the 50-Day Moving Average

Bitcoin for the first time in several months surpassed the 50-day moving average, traditionally seen as a short-term trend reversal signal. This indicator is especially significant after a four-month decline in Q4, when the largest cryptocurrency lost 24%. The recovery narrowed the performance gap between Bitcoin and other risk assets—stocks and precious metals, which showed more confident dynamics at the start of the year.

The move indicates that digital assets are beginning to offset the deficits accumulated during previous weeks of consolidation. Traders who viewed the 50-day moving average as a critical level activated buy orders upon its breach.

## Venezuelan Reserves and Supply Dynamics

Maduro’s arrest sparked speculation about the possible confiscation of state crypto-assets. Some market participants refer to hypothetical Bitcoin reserves in Venezuelan treasuries. Singapore-based QCP Capital urged caution, as misinformation spreads rapidly during geopolitical crises.

However, there is one market scenario worth attention. If the new U.S. government confiscates and holds Venezuelan crypto-assets, it would reduce circulating Bitcoin supply. Such a development would reinforce the narrative of state accumulation, which, if demand remains stable, could support price appreciation.

Data shows that miners and institutional holders are currently showing little urgency to deploy positions. FalconX reported that recent growth was driven by crypto-oriented buyers, while large holders are holding their positions. This balance of forces reduces short-term selling pressure.

## Derivatives: Focus on $100,000 and Protection at $80,000

Derivative data reveal market expectations. Open interest in Bitcoin options is concentrated on contracts expiring January 30 with a strike price of $100,000—this position has twice the notional value of alternatives. Traders clearly aim to ensure Bitcoin re-tests the psychological hundred-thousand-dollar mark.

At the same time, there is a significant put position at $80,000 with the same expiry. This indicates risk hedging and participants’ desire to protect against sharp corrections. The combined position shows a bullish sentiment with minimized potential losses.

Capital flows support this scenario. Investors stopped 12 spot ETFs on Bitcoin in the U.S. from $471 million on January 2—the largest daily inflow since November 11. Funding rates for perpetual futures rose to October 18 highs, signaling increased demand for long exposure with leverage.

## Critical Levels and Development Scenarios

According to FalconX, Bitcoin must stay above $94,000 to maintain upward momentum. A lower critical support level is at $88,000. Surpassing these levels in upcoming sessions will determine whether demand can push the price toward the traders’ target of $100,000 or if a correction will occur.

The current situation demonstrates how quickly geopolitical dynamics, liquidity changes, and technical signals can pressure price decisions in cryptocurrency markets. The balance between bullish expectations (position at $100,000) and bearish hedging ($80,000) reflects market uncertainty and readiness for different scenarios.