Ethereum approaches US$ 3,900; BitMine locks in US$ 2.1 billion in staking

Ethereum started 2026 with significant gains in January, regaining ground lost after ending the previous year under strong volatility. Currently, the asset shows technical signs of recovery that depend on the consolidation of a long-term support structure.

Double Bottom Pattern Projects 20% Gain

Analysts point to an important technical pattern developing throughout Q4 2025: the double bottom formation. If this pattern is confirmed in the coming days, the technical projection points to the $3,900 region, which would represent approximately 20% gain from the current levels of $3.35K.

However, the recovery faces technical obstacles that need to be overcome. Ethereum is now testing the level of the 200-period exponential moving average (EMA), the line that acts as a turning point between bearish and bullish trends on the daily chart.

200-Period EMA: The Tipping Point

The 200-period moving average acts as an important psychological barrier for the market’s macro sentiment. Since the bearish bias initiated in November, Ethereum has failed twice to successfully break this level, leading to subsequent corrections.

A daily close above the $3,300 mark would be interpreted as confirmation that selling pressure is losing technical strength. In this scenario, institutional investors would signal acceptance of higher prices, marking the turning point for the trend.

Positive CVD Indicates Genuine Institutional Buying

The Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has been showing a consistent upward trend over the past three weeks, revealing that buyers are actively seeking the market price rather than just placing passive buy orders.

CryptoQuant data shows that both spot and derivatives markets are aligned in positive territory at the start of January. This alignment is rare and generally indicates that the recovery is not just due to forced coverages but genuine institutional buying based on directional conviction.

Whales Sell While Retail Accumulates

Beneath this recovery, an interesting dynamic exists among different investor groups. Wallets holding between $100K and $10M recorded a net outflow of $40 million just this week—large players taking advantage of short-term highs to realize profits.

Meanwhile, retail and mid-sized traders injected about $31 million in net purchases over the last six trading days. The divergence suggests that big holders are taking profits while smaller investor layers continue accumulating.

Validator Exit Queue Nearly Zero Reduces Selling Pressure

A deep structural factor is changing Ethereum’s supply dynamics. The validator exit queue—the ones wishing to leave the staking process—has returned to nearly zero levels for the first time since July 2025.

To understand this, it’s important to know what staking is: it’s a process where validators lock their coins on the network to participate in consensus and earn yields. When a validator exits this process, their coin enters an unlock queue. Currently, this queue contains only 32 ETH, a 99.9% decrease from the peak of 2.67 million recorded in September.

This dramatic reduction means that practically no one wants to leave staking at this moment—a clear sign of confidence in the asset. At the same time, the entry queue reached 1.3 million ETH, the highest level since November, indicating new validators are entering consensus.

BitMine Locks $2.1 Billion, Tightening Ethereum Scarcity

The world’s largest corporate ether treasury belongs to BitMine, which has been leading an aggressive accumulation process. The company added 82,560 ETH to the entry queue on January 3 and has already staked a total of 659,219 ETH—amounting to approximately $2.1 billion at current prices.

This amount represents about 3.4% of the entire circulating supply of Ethereum. With this significant share of the supply locked in validation mode, liquidity available on exchanges continues to decrease, creating a technical scarcity of the asset.

Simultaneously, ETH reserves on exchanges hit ten-year lows, while institutional staking demand continues to surge—dynamics that reinforce upward price pressure.

Convergence of Factors Points to a Significant Move

The current scenario converges multiple favorable factors: technical testing at a critical level, positive CVD in both markets, validators with no desire to exit, and massive institutional accumulation. If Ethereum manages to break the 200-period EMA with sustained close, the trajectory toward $3,900 gains significant technical credibility.