Kashkari leads in the Polymarket prediction market for the 2025 Federal Reserve Chair election

OfflineNewbie · 2026-01-13T08:06:46+00:00

The prediction market is focusing on potential candidates for the Federal Reserve Chair, with Neel Kashkari emerging as a strong contender, holding a 56% likelihood of appointment. Market participants favor his policy stance, while others like Philip N. Jefferson and Christopher Waller have lower probabilities.

OfflineNewbie

2026-01-13 08:06:46

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The prediction markets for the next Federal Reserve Chairmanship are drawing attention. According to the latest on-chain analysis, as of December 21, Neil Kashkari has emerged as a leading candidate, capturing the expectations of market participants.

Kashkari Support Surpasses Majority

Market sentiment indicated by Polymarket data shows that Kashkari has a 56% probability of becoming the next Fed Chair. Currently, he serves as the director of the National Economic Council and holds the top position in the prediction markets.

This result reflects how market participants are evaluating Kashkari’s policy stance and leadership qualities. The market outlook on monetary policy has been visualized through on-chain analysis.

Evaluation of Other Candidates

Meanwhile, the probabilities for Philip N. Jefferson and Christopher Waller are forecasted at 22% and 12%, respectively. These three candidates are clearly attracting the majority of market expectations.

Analysis from the prediction markets indicates overwhelming support for Kashkari. At the same time, there is still some evaluation of other candidates, and uncertainty about the election outcome remains.

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