Fundstrat Strategist Projects Crypto Correction Window: BTC May Revisit 65000 Support Zone in Early 2026

Market Correction Expected Before Year-End Surge

Sean Farrell, Crypto Strategy Lead at Fundstrat Global Advisors (Tom Lee’s firm), has outlined a nuanced market narrative for cryptocurrency in 2026. While macro fundamentals remain constructive for digital assets throughout the year, Farrell anticipates the market will face near-term headwinds that could create compelling accumulation opportunities for sophisticated investors.

The Near-Term Correction Thesis

According to Farrell’s “2026 Crypto Outlook” analysis released in December, the first and second quarters of 2026 represent a critical digestion period for the sector. Rather than viewing this as bearish conviction, the strategist frames it as a necessary consolidation phase driven by risk-off dynamics and liquidity rebalancing.

His baseline scenario projects meaningful price pullbacks across major assets:

• Bitcoin may recede toward the 65000-$65,000 range, offering fresh entry points for positioning
• Ethereum could retreat to $1,800-$2,000 levels
• Solana may decline to the $50-$75 band

These levels would represent approximately 25-35% drawdowns from recent trading ranges, providing what Farrell characterizes as “more attractive deployment zones” for the second half recovery.

Year-End Targets Paint Different Picture

The analysis becomes notably more constructive when looking at 2026 year-end levels. Farrell projects Bitcoin could reach approximately $115,000, while Ethereum may appreciate to $4,500—representing substantial gains from proposed interim lows. This asymmetric risk-reward framework suggests the interim weakness is tactical rather than strategic.

Ethereum’s Structural Advantages

A particularly intriguing element of the thesis centers on Ethereum’s relative outperformance trajectory. Farrell highlights three structural factors supporting ETH strength:

The absence of ongoing miner liquidation pressure differentiates Ethereum from assets facing continuous sell-side flows. Additionally, Ethereum remains insulated from MSTR dynamics that may create noise in Bitcoin positioning. Finally, quantum computing risk concerns, which periodically resurface in Bitcoin discourse, hold less relevance for the network’s architecture.

Risk Management Stance

Should his baseline scenario prove incorrect, Farrell advocates maintaining defensive positioning rather than capitulating to alternative narratives. The emphasis remains on waiting for confirmed trend-strengthening signals before committing fresh capital—a methodology centered on probability-weighted outcomes and disciplined capital allocation.

The overarching framework acknowledges that while liquidity-driven support should materialize through 2026, the path to those year-end targets may require navigating near-term volatility and tactical retracements.