The doji candle warns of weakness in Ethereum while Fibonacci holds at $3,300

Ethereum is currently trading near $3,100, facing a critical moment where conflicting technical signals converge. While the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (approximately $3,224) provides a support base, the formation of a doji candle at recent highs suggests buyers are losing momentum. This combination creates a turning scenario where the next move will determine the market direction.

Doji Candle at the Top: Indecision Signal in ETH

The daily chart reveals an evening doji star pattern that formed after Ethereum reached the $3,400 to $3,500 range. The sequence was clear: first a strong bullish candle, followed by a doji that opened and closed at nearly the same level (indicating market hesitation), and finally a decisive bearish candle that retreated to the previous range.

This three-candle structure conveys a specific message: sellers finally intervened after buyers lost control. If Ethereum closes below the doji’s low and continues trading below recent highs, the pattern will be fully confirmed, increasing the risk of a deeper correction.

However, as long as ETH remains above the support band near $3,100, the pattern only warns of diminishing bullish momentum, without guaranteeing an immediate trend reversal.

Fibonacci Holds but Does Not Guarantee Recovery

The golden zone of Fibonacci (between the 0.5 level at $3,535 and the 0.618 level at $3,224) has historically been a decision point after significant moves. Ethereum is currently positioned exactly within this critical range, where trend reversals or confirmations often begin.

The rebound from the demand zone of $2,877 to $3,048 showed relative strength, allowing ETH to register higher lows. This behavior marked the first coordinated change in structure since the October breakdown. The price also recovered the short-term upward trendline earlier this week, providing a positive technical context.

Technical Indicators Show Gradual Transition

The RSI is around 54, indicating that momentum is emerging from oversold conditions toward a neutral to positive stance. This level is typical in early recovery stages, where acceleration has not yet arrived.

The 50-day EMA is near $3,310. A daily close above this level would place the price above both the midpoint of the golden zone and the short-term trendline, reinforcing reversal signals. Volume remains steady, indicating that any movement is built on sustained participation rather than speculative spikes.

Key Scenarios for Next Moves

If ETH surpasses and holds above $3,300 with continued follow-through, the structure opens space toward the 0.5 Fibonacci level at $3,535. Breaking that barrier would confirm a full recovery from the retracement zone and could extend the move toward the previous resistance cluster near $3,850.

Conversely, if the doji candle confirms and Ethereum closes below $3,100, the scenario reverses, increasing the risk of a broader correction toward previous demand levels.

For now, technical evidence shows that the price respects the Fibonacci golden zone and is turning upward from it. However, the appearance of the doji warns that buyers should remain vigilant at support levels while sellers evaluate entry points. The Ethereum market is in a phase where technical confirmation will require price behavior in the coming days to clear the current ambiguity.