Bitcoin Slips Into Bear Territory: What the Data Reveals About the Market Shift

The technical indicators are flashing red for Bitcoin as it crosses a critical threshold that has historically marked the transition from bull to bear cycles. According to analysis by CryptoQuant, BTC has fallen below its 365-day moving average—a level that portfolio managers and traders have long watched as a key demarcation line. Currently trading around $90,780, Bitcoin sits 28% below its all-time high of $126,080 reached in October, signaling a sharp reversal from earlier optimism.

ETF Outflows Signal Institutional Retreat

Institutional appetite for Bitcoin has cooled considerably. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs shifted into net-seller mode during Q4 2025, with combined holdings declining by approximately 24,000 BTC—roughly $2.12 billion in value. This marks a stark contrast to the same quarter in 2024, when ETF inflows surged. CryptoQuant’s analysis reveals that accumulation patterns among major Bitcoin holders (those holding 100 to 1,000 BTC) have also slowed significantly below historical trend lines.

This weakening in large holder activity mirrors conditions observed at the end of 2021, just before the brutal 2022 bear market unfolded. The coincidence raises questions about whether the current cycle’s demand drivers—fueled by the spot ETF approval, the Trump election victory, and corporate treasury purchases—have already exhausted their momentum.

Demand Growth Has Peaked

Since 2023, three distinct demand waves propelled Bitcoin upward: the January 2024 spot ETF launch, electoral developments, and a wave of corporate treasury accumulation. However, beginning in early October, demand growth entered what analysts describe as a “slowdown period,” now tracking below its historical average trajectory.

“Most of this cycle’s demand growth has passed,” the report noted, suggesting “the corresponding bearish effect on price” lies ahead. This shift in accumulation behavior often precedes prolonged downward pressure.

Where Bitcoin Could Bottom

If the bear market scenario plays out, CryptoQuant identifies potential support zones. The firm sees intermediate support around $70,000, with a possible cycle low near $56,000—representing a 55% decline from the all-time high. Such a move would push BTC an additional 36% lower from current levels.

Some market participants remain optimistic despite the headwinds, arguing that Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle may no longer apply. Yet the preponderance of technical and on-chain evidence suggests the path forward involves further consolidation, potentially extending into 2026. The $88,000 level that seemed like comfortable ground weeks ago now appears increasingly difficult to defend.