Can Zcash Break Through The Bull Flag Target Of $655? Whales Are Betting Yes, But Retail Hesitates

Zcash just recorded a 10% surge within 24 hours, with ZEC trading around $446. The real intrigue lies deeper: the bull flag pattern that triggered on December 15 is still holding firm, pointing toward a potential rally to $655—a level supported by both flag projection mathematics and Fibonacci extension alignment.

The catch? Execution timing remains uncertain. While institutional players are accumulating aggressively, the retail market hasn’t joined the party, and derivatives traders are sending mixed signals that suggest caution.

Mega Whales Are Accumulating, But Something Feels Off

The top 100 Zcash addresses just increased their holdings by 2.86% in a single day, moving from 34,542 to 35,532 ZEC tokens. At the current price level, this translates to roughly $441,480 in fresh positioning—a deliberate move that signals serious conviction in the bull flag thesis.

This whale accumulation is textbook bullish behavior: institutional players are stepping in precisely when the technical breakout occurred, reinforcing the idea that conviction remains strong among sophisticated investors.

However, this wealth of whale activity doesn’t tell the complete story.

The Retail-Derivatives Disconnect That’s Creating Market Doubt

Between December 17 and December 23, Zcash price climbed steadily. Yet something peculiar happened: the Money Flow Index (MFI)—a metric that tracks buy/sell pressure using price and volume data—printed lower lows despite rising prices. This classic bearish divergence signals weak dip buying and suggests retail participants lack confidence in the move.

The derivatives market paints an even more cautious picture:

• Whales in perpetuals futures: net short positioning
• Consistent winners in derivatives: maintaining net short stance despite selective long additions
• Smart money traders: still net short, though beginning to layer in longs cautiously
• Top 100 perps addresses: actively reducing long exposure rather than adding to it

The paradox is stark: spot market whales are aggressively buying, yet the perpetuals market—where leverage traders express directional conviction—remains skeptical. It’s a market that accepts the bull flag breakout concept but doubts whether rally timing is right.

The Roadmap To $655: Key Resistance Zones To Watch

If Zcash is serious about reaching that bull flag target, it must navigate several technical checkpoints:

Bullish Scenario: The first critical hurdle sits at $458 (the 0.5 Fibonacci level). A daily close above this level opens the path to $479, followed by $508. If Zcash reaches $546, the measured move aligns with the original bull flag projection, making $655 a realistic outcome rather than merely mathematical fantasy.

Breaking $655 would satisfy both the flag’s measured move and the 1.618 Fibonacci extension—technically sound completion of the pattern.

Downside Risk: If momentum fails, $411 becomes the first line of defense. A break below $370 would invalidate the entire bull flag structure and suggest a deeper pullback is ahead.

What Happens Next?

The bull flag structure remains intact—whales are committed, technicals are aligned, and the $655 target survives. But the market’s hesitation is real. Retail dip buying looks unconvincing, derivatives traders aren’t backing the move with leverage, and broad-based participation is missing.

For the $655 target to materialize, Zcash needs to clear $458 with conviction. That’s the first test of whether whale accumulation can convince the rest of the market to follow.