XRP Struggles to Break $2 Despite $64M ETF Inflow Wave—What's Really Happening Behind the Scenes

As XRP hovered near $2.07 with mounting technical pressure, a puzzling market dynamic emerged in late 2025: massive capital pouring into XRP exchange-traded funds failed to lift prices, while competing assets showed mixed results. The numbers tell an intriguing story about how modern crypto markets actually function.

The Capital Influx That Isn’t Translating to Price Action

XRP spot ETFs captured $64 million in net inflows during the week, dominating major crypto products in terms of investor appetite. By contrast, Ethereum spot ETFs experienced a $102 million outflow, and Solana ETFs pulled in a modest $13.14 million despite all SOL-linked funds posting gains. The disconnect was stark: unprecedented demand for XRP via institutional vehicles, yet the token remained stubbornly below the $2 barrier.

This paradox has sparked intense debate in trading communities. If institutions are dumping capital into XRP ETFs, shouldn’t that buying pressure send prices soaring? The answer reveals a crucial gap in how retail traders understand market mechanics.

The OTC Reality: Why Direct Exchange Orders Don’t Tell the Whole Story

Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan recently pulled back the curtain on how ETF acquisitions actually work in practice. When fresh capital flows into an XRP ETF, fund managers bypass public exchange order books entirely. Instead, they negotiate directly with major institutional market makers including Jane Street, Susquehanna, and Goldman Sachs for bulk purchases at negotiated rates.

These counterparties compete aggressively to offer the lowest per-token pricing on large blocks. Only after agreements close do these firms venture into broader markets to source the actual XRP required for ETF custodian delivery. The result: real buying pressure exists, but it operates through invisible channels away from visible exchange order books. This structural layer dampens the immediate price impact that retail observers typically expect from heavy inflows. Capital is genuinely entering the market—just not through mechanisms that trigger obvious price spikes.

Technical Setup Flashing Warning Signals

Despite strong institutional interest via ETFs, price technicals are sending bearish whispers. Analysts have flagged a critical juncture: XRP appears positioned for its first monthly close below established support this year. Market observers stress that holding above $2.08 by month-end remains essential for maintaining bullish structure integrity.

One prominent technical analyst emphasized that zooming out on longer timeframes reveals warning signals. Price action ultimately dominates all narratives, and current movement suggests investors should reassess bullish convictions unless support holds firm. The battle between institutional ETF demand and deteriorating technical setup will likely define XRP’s near-term trajectory heading into 2026.