## Bitcoin's 2025 Struggles May Hide the Setup for 2026's Explosive Move

Bitcoin stumbled through 2025, trailing both gold and the Nasdaq 100 as liquidity dried up and institutional appetite cooled. Yet beneath the pain lies a potential inflection point. **VanEck argues that the current gap between Bitcoin and traditional assets isn't a broken narrative—it's a mean reversion setup that could reshape 2026.**

### **The Performance Gap That Could Matter**

The numbers tell a stark story. Bitcoin lagged the Nasdaq 100 by approximately 50% year-to-date, a dramatic reversal from expectations that currency debasement would fuel digital asset strength. The king crypto peaked above $126,000 in 2025 before retreating to around $90,780 as of mid-January 2026, erasing much of its early-year gains.

This pullback forced institutional investors to step back. Tighter liquidity conditions and rising interest rates created headwinds that proved too much for speculative positioning to overcome. While Bitcoin dominated headlines, gold—historically a dusty reserve asset—actually outperformed it, extending a 70%+ rally that pushed prices near $4,490 per ounce.

The message was clear: risk appetite had vanished, and with it, demand for volatile assets.

### **Why VanEck Thinks This Setup Matters**

According to David Schassler, head of multi-asset solutions at VanEck, the underperformance reflects timing, not a broken thesis. His argument rests on two pillars: **macroeconomic cycles and liquidity dynamics**.

First, the macro story. Governments continue their path toward currency debasement through monetary expansion and fiscal spending. This structural pressure hasn't disappeared—it's been temporarily masked by tight money conditions. When liquidity floods back into markets, scarce assets like Bitcoin historically respond sharply. "As debasement ramps and liquidity returns, BTC historically responds sharply," Schassler noted, revealing that VanEck has actively been **buying into weakness**.

Second, the precedent. Historical data shows that Bitcoin tends to rally after extended weakness. Chain analysts have flagged that when hash rates decline significantly, Bitcoin has posted positive returns in the following 90 days roughly 65% of the time. While this isn't a guarantee, it suggests the pain of 2025 may be setting up opportunity.

### **Gold's Strength as a Broader Signal**

The story doesn't end with Bitcoin alone. Gold's outsized 2025 performance—up over 70%—signals something deeper: investor demand for scarce, non-correlated assets during uncertainty. VanEck expects this momentum to accelerate, with gold potentially targeting $5,000 per ounce in 2026.

If gold can rally while Bitcoin stumbled, what happens when liquidity conditions shift? The natural resources complex, driven by AI infrastructure demands and re-industrialization, is already showing signs of a bull market. These "old-world assets building the new-world economy," as Schassler put it, suggest investors are rotating toward tangible scarcity—exactly the environment where Bitcoin thrives.

### **The 2026 Question**

The real test arrives in 2026. Will the valuation gap between Bitcoin and equities trigger mean reversion? Will renewed liquidity cycles activate the currency debasement thesis? Or will tighter-for-longer credit conditions continue to suppress risk appetite?

VanEck's position is clear: the foundation has been built through pain. Whether Bitcoin becomes a top performer next year may depend less on sentiment and more on whether macro cycles finally align in its favor.