Bitcoin technicals turn bearish, Hongjie analysis indicates key support areas face testing

Real-Time Market Overview

Bitcoin is currently trading around 90.78K, with a 24-hour decline of -0.21%. Technical indicators show clear short-term pressure, and key support levels should be closely monitored.

Short-Term Trend Analysis

From the 1-hour chart, a clear bearish signal has appeared in the moving average system. EMA5 is below EMA10, EMA20, and EMA60, and the price is below the main EMA30 and the midline, confirming a short-term bearish trend. The MACD momentum indicator is in a death cross, with DIF (-251) significantly lower than DEA (-46), and the histogram is negative (-415), indicating that the bearish momentum remains dominant.

The 4-hour chart confirms this trend: the midline has been broken, forming a volume-increasing death cross, indicating amplified downward momentum. The BOLL channel shows the price approaching the oversold area near the lower band and EMA80, but there has been no secondary breakdown of the lower band yet. In the short term, a rebound followed by further decline is possible.

Oversold Indicator Alert

All three RSI lines are in the oversold zone. RSI1 (43) and RSI2 (42) are both below the 50 midline, reflecting excessive short-term selling pressure, and downward momentum may not be fully released yet. Regarding KDJ, the K value (31) is below D (32), and J (28) is at a very low level. After the death cross, a convergence signal appears, indicating that while the short-term trend is bearish, it is close to a rebound critical point.

Trading Recommendations

Based on Hongjie’s analysis framework, the suggested approach is: wait for the price to rebound to the 1-hour midline and EMA30 area before re-entering short positions, with yesterday’s high as a stop-loss. Focus on the evening’s second probe break, the 1-hour EMA160, the 4-hour EMA60, and support levels of the lower Bollinger Band and lower support lines, which are not far from the 90,000 mark.

Structurally, multiple moving averages support below 90,000, and since the lower Bollinger Band is not opening downward, the probability of oscillation in the 90,000-95,000 range is higher in the short term.

Specific Entry Points

Bearish Strategy: Enter short positions with a small position at ≥93,200, with a stop-loss at 94,500; partial profit targets at 92,200 → 91,600 → 90,500. If the price breaks below 90,000, continue holding.

Bullish Strategy: Enter long positions below ≤90,500, with a stop-loss below 89,700; partial profit targets at 91,500 → 92,300 → 93,100.

Risk Disclaimer

The above analysis is based on technical calculations; markets are highly volatile, and actual entry points should be used as reference only. Be sure to implement proper risk management, strictly control position sizes, and avoid heavy leverage.