**Gold's Next Move Hinges on This Week's Inflation Data—And Geopolitics Won't Help**

Markets are holding their breath before Thursday's CPI release, and DHF Capital CEO Bas Kooijman just laid out the playbook. The Fed is priced in for two rate cuts in H1 2026, but here's the catch: that scenario depends entirely on inflation actually cooling down. If the numbers cooperate, yields could compress and the dollar weakens—two tailwinds that historically send gold soaring to uncharted territory.

**Why CPI Data Is the Main Event**

Investors aren't just watching numbers for the sake of it. Slower inflation signals would give the Fed the green light to ease policy earlier and more aggressively than markets currently expect. Lower rates mean reduced opportunity costs for holding non-yielding assets like gold. At the same time, a softer dollar makes bullion cheaper for international buyers, amplifying demand. DHF's outlook reflects this chain reaction: inflation moderates → rates drop → gold rallies.

**Geopolitical Tensions Add Another Layer**

But inflation data isn't the only thing moving markets. Trump's latest move to blockade sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers has thrown an extra wrinkle into the picture. Supply concerns, renewed trade frictions, and broader geopolitical uncertainty are funneling capital into safe-haven assets. Gold, as the ultimate risk-off play, is benefiting from this flow alongside traditional flight-to-safety moves into US Treasuries and the dollar—though the latter may be capped if rate-cut expectations strengthen.

The confluence is clear: data-driven Fed policy shifts meeting real-world geopolitical friction could be exactly what gold needs to break through resistance levels and hit fresh highs.