2026-01-12 14:38:09

Hong Kong stocks' new issue Minimax, I didn't sell a single share. From the financial report, this company's revenue is just over $30 million USD, with a loss of as much as $450 million USD, yet its valuation has soared to over 13 billion—this number is indeed crazy. But why do I still choose to hold on?

Last year's performance of a certain stablecoin issuer after going public gave me the answer. As one of the few targets in the market, it surged nearly 3 times after listing. The core logic behind this is one word: scarcity. When there are very few truly valuable targets in a sector, valuation premiums are no longer just a fantasy but a real market law. The scarcity of Minimax in its field may be another validation of this logic.

View Original

This page may contain third-party content, which is provided for information purposes only (not representations/warranties) and should not be considered as an endorsement of its views by Gate, nor as financial or professional advice. See Disclaimer for details.

9 Likes

Reward
9
6
Repost
Share

Comment

0/400

DefiVeteran

· 3h ago

I've heard the logic of scarcity too many times. Every time, it's said that the next surge is just around the corner. But what happened?

View OriginalReply0

SchrödingersNode

· 01-12 15:06

Losing 450 million and still holding on, this is the gambler spirit I like. Scarcity is a valid point, but the premise is that this business can really survive, right? A valuation of 13 billion with 30 million in revenue—this multiple is so outrageous that I don't know whether to laugh or cry. Betting on a Minimax comeback, going all in indeed. I've heard this logic countless times; most of the time, it's just a story of being harvested. Hold on to it—either get rich overnight or go to zero with it, anyway, I've already jumped on board. Scarcity = valuable? I feel like this is more like an excuse for the crop.

View OriginalReply0

GweiTooHigh

· 01-12 14:59

Haha, losing 450 million and still holding on to a 13 billion valuation—that's the magic of the Web3 track. I understand sticking to this move; scarcity is indeed valuable, but be careful not to become the last one to take the fall. Thinking back to the crazy surge of stablecoins, the market is just riding this wave... But can Minimax replicate it? That's hard to say. If you follow this logic, it seems that any project with enough scarcity can have its valuation skyrocket? I've seen many cases of explosive growth before bankruptcy; I hope you're not one of them haha. Scarcity ≠ value; don't be fooled by the story. Hold tight—maybe it'll fly, or maybe it's just a trap.

View OriginalReply0

rugpull_ptsd

· 01-12 14:59

450 million in losses can still support a valuation of 13 billion. How rare is that, haha.

View OriginalReply0

BoredWatcher

· 01-12 14:54

I believe in the logic of scarcity, but comparing a valuation of 13 billion to a company with an annual revenue of 30 million... this bet is a bit too big, isn't it?

View OriginalReply0

SchrodingerWallet