Ukraine has taken action, and Polymarket is facing a global regulatory test

Prediction market platform Polymarket has been officially banned in Ukraine. According to the latest news, the National Electronic Communications Regulatory Commission of Ukraine has restricted user access to the platform’s website based on Resolution No. 695. This is not only a specific national regulatory action but also reflects the increasing strictness of global regulatory scrutiny faced by the prediction market industry.

Event Details: Reasons for the Ban and Implementation Status

Why was it banned

The Ukrainian authorities’ reason for the ban is straightforward: Polymarket does not hold a gambling operation license recognized by regulatory agencies. According to local regulations, electronic communication service providers must restrict access to online resources used to organize, conduct, or offer unlicensed gambling activities. Polymarket’s domain has been listed on the publicly available prohibited internet resources list.

This classification is crucial. Ukraine considers prediction markets as gambling activities rather than financial instruments, which determines the severity of regulation.

Current implementation status and scale

According to data, as of December 24, 2025, approximately 240 bets related to Ukraine have been completed on Polymarket, totaling over $270 million. Additionally, 120 active bets amount to more than $140 million. This indicates that Ukrainian users’ engagement with the platform is quite substantial.

Interestingly, the enforcement of this ban is not uniform. Some Ukrainian users can no longer access the website, while others report that they can still open it without restrictions. This may reflect incomplete technical implementation or a phased approach by regulatory authorities.

Background Analysis: This is not an isolated incident

Polymarket’s global expansion and regulatory pressure

It is important to note that Polymarket is currently expanding globally. According to the latest news, the platform is developing support for multiple language versions, including a Chinese version. This shows the platform’s ambitious plans but also means it will face increased regulatory scrutiny from more countries.

The platform’s influence is indeed rising. Polymarket founder Shayne Coplan, aged 27, was recently listed on Forbes’ 2025 Under 30 Wealth Creators list, with a net worth of $1 billion. Such high visibility will also attract the attention of regulators.

Increasing global regulatory pressure

Ukraine’s ban is only superficial. In the United States, Democratic lawmakers have pushed the “Prediction Market Anti-Insider Trading Act,” targeting some high-stakes bets on Polymarket and questioning whether insider trading exists. Within the industry, there are also criticisms pointing out frequent system failures and lack of product improvements in Polymarket and Kalshi.

These pressures come from multiple directions: political (legislation), technical (product quality), and compliance (license requirements).

Impact Assessment: Limited but Symbolically Significant

Actual impact on Polymarket

In terms of scale, Ukrainian users’ betting amounts are not insignificant, but relative to Polymarket’s global volume, it may not be a fatal blow. The platform can continue serving local users through VPNs and other technical means—this “tech resistance” is common in the crypto space.

However, symbolically, this is an important signal. It indicates that prediction markets are no longer viewed as “gray areas” but are being incorporated into clear regulatory frameworks. Ukraine’s approach may be emulated by other countries.

Long-term industry implications

This event reflects a fundamental issue facing the prediction market industry: unclear regulatory positioning. Different countries categorize prediction markets very differently—some see them as financial derivatives, others as gambling, and some are still observing. Under this uncertainty, platforms will face increasing regional restrictions.

Summary

While Ukraine’s ban on Polymarket may not directly destroy this platform valued at over $10 billion, it marks the transition of prediction markets from “wild growth” to “regulatory confrontation.” As the platform expands globally and political attention increases, similar regulatory actions may recur in other countries.

For Polymarket, the real challenge is not just a single country’s ban but how to find room for survival within various regulatory frameworks worldwide. This will require more compliance efforts, increased transparency, and possibly even a change in business models. The golden age of the prediction market industry may not have begun yet, but the test of regulatory resilience has already arrived.