Bitcoin in a technical trap – what awaits investors below the key moving averages?

The current situation in the Bitcoin market paints a picture of a market under increasing selling pressure. With a valuation hovering around $90,310 (data from January 12), the biggest challenge arises when the price remains significantly below two key technical levels: the 23-week moving average at $101,870 and the 50-week moving average at $106,528. This situation has created an environment where previous profit gaps are forcing traders to look for an exit from their positions.

Two Development Paths for Bitcoin

The technical landscape for Bitcoin emerges as a fork with two clearly defined paths.

Optimistic Scenario – Return above Moving Averages

The first possibility involves a clear rebound. If Bitcoin manages to close the week above the range of $101,870–$106,528, the narrative of a “death cross” would be effectively rejected. Such a move would indicate a recovery in demand from Polish and global investors. In this configuration, the next natural target would be the $107,155 level, which would serve as another resistance barrier. This scenario suggests that selling pressure may be only temporary, and investor enthusiasm has not been completely exhausted.

Bearish Scenario – Spiral down to $67,026

However, if Bitcoin fails to hold levels above $101,870, a systematic testing of lower supports will begin. The first significant support appears at $80,600 – a barrier whose breach downward would signal an increased threat. Below this level lies another checkpoint at $74,111. Yet, the real test for bulls would be a weekly breach of $80,600. Such an event would shift the market focus from the classic “buying on dips” strategy to pure risk management. In the worst-case scenario, attention would shift to the $67,026 area, where the 200-week moving average is located – the last line of defense for bulls.

Macro-economic Turbulence Deepens Technical Challenges

Bitcoin’s technical issues do not occur in a vacuum. Recent data indicate a clear slowdown in ETF fund investments in the spot market, suggesting a weakening of institutional interest. At the same time, the cautious stance of the Federal Reserve regarding future interest rates keeps cryptocurrency markets in a state of uncertainty.

These macroeconomic factors reinforce the vulnerability of Bitcoin’s technical formations. The combination of weak technical indicators and macroeconomic pessimism creates a potentially dangerous environment for long positions.

What’s Next?

Bitcoin is at a critical juncture where each trading day offers potential for both a significant rebound and a worsening situation. Investors should carefully monitor the $80,600 level as a turning point. If this support is broken on the weekly session, the downward scenario will gain serious momentum.