MOVE Hits 13% Rally But Day Trading Alert: Bearish Signals Still Dominate

Movement [MOVE] staged a notable 13% surge on December 24th, sparking day trading attention with impressive volume metrics. CoinMarketCap recorded a staggering 400% uptick in 24-hour trading volume, while on-chain data from major platforms showed a 6-fold spike in spot trading activity compared to the 20-day average.

Why This Rally Failed to Convince

The spike in attention from day traders was real, but the underlying fundamentals tell a different story. Daily Active Addresses remained flat, showing retail investors weren’t rushing in. Weighted Sentiment didn’t climb significantly, suggesting skepticism among the broader community. What’s more concerning: previous rallies with identical volume patterns—November 22nd (55.9% intraday gain) and December 14th (54% gain)—both collapsed within days, allowing the downtrend to resume.

The Real Problem: Distribution Pressure

Movement has been in a consistent downtrend since January 2025, unaffected by Bitcoin [BTC]'s rallies in June and late September. The culprit? Only 28% of MOVE’s total supply is circulating, while $5.89 worth monthly unlocks continuously flood the market. Buyers simply can’t absorb this supply pressure, explaining why even bullish volume spikes lead nowhere.

Technical Breakdown: Why Bears Have the Upper Hand

The Chained Money Flow (CMF) indicator sits deeply negative, signaling institutional or smart money distribution rather than accumulation. Price action reveals a troubling pattern: successive failed breakouts and bearish market structure breaks. Each bounce—no matter how convincing on the day—lacks follow-through, forming what traders call a “bear trap setup.”

Dormant Circulation did surge on December 23rd, but Mean Coin Age continued climbing gradually. This suggests holders remain underwater and reluctant to sell, but are also not aggressively buying the dip. It’s a cautious, sideways market psychology.

The Verdict for Day Traders and Long-term Holders

For day trading opportunities, the 13% rally on December 24th was exactly what it appeared—a short-term bounce rather than a trend reversal. The volume surge caught attention, but failed to deliver structural bullishness.

Onchain metrics haven’t flashed extreme distribution warnings yet, but the technical setup remains firmly bearish. Unless MOVE can break above the 54-55% resistance levels previously failed in November and December, expect the downtrend to persist. Day traders should remain cautious, and long-term holders may want to reassess their risk tolerance in this environment.