Bitcoin FOMO or FUD? The Real Story Behind the $90K

On Sunday, Bitcoin suddenly reached the critical $90,000 level—an milestone that is no accident. For those waiting for a Christmas rally, this is deeper than seasonal trading. The key lies in economic signals that are subtly changing the world.

The Quiet Pivot of the American Economy

No major news, but on May 26, the Dallas Fed released the so-called “Beige Book”—a comprehensive snapshot of 12 regions in the United States. This is the strongest economic pulse available amid a government shutdown and delayed data releases.

The verdict? The economy is not stopping, but slowing down—and this is not just in one industry.

The Labor Market is Gradually Surpassing

Positive signals in the job market are modest. Half of the regional Fed offices report declining hiring intentions. The trend is like “hire-lite”—companies are only making minimal replacements when employees leave, but not expanding.

In the Atlanta region, many businesses are reducing their workforce or consolidating. In the Cleveland area, retailers are voluntarily cutting staff due to declining sales. This is not an isolated case—it’s spreading across many industries and geographies.

Wage growth remains moderate, and consumer spending is increasingly cautious. High-income households are still okay, but middle- and low-income Americans are retrenching.

The Hidden Costs in Supply Chains

There is a concerning part of the “Beige Book” for the inflation narrative: headline CPI slowdown is due to cyclical tariffs, but healthcare costs—mentioned by almost every region—are persistent and hard to solve.

Companies are now choosing: raise prices or accept shrinking margins. The Minneapolis brewery flagged aluminum can price spikes. Retailers are struggling. The result? The true cost pressure on consumers is greater than the latest 2.7% PPI year-on-year number.

The Quiet Policy Shift

The market reacted immediately. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December rose from 20% to 86% within a week—slightly, but decisively.

Fed officials are subtly adjusting their language. Nothing was announced, but the tone shifted from “high rates must stay” to “we’re monitoring the downside risks.” This shift is standard policy language—but in the market, it is used as a signal that risk calculus has moved.

Global Reflation: A Real Problem

Japan: The $73.5B Emergency Pump

While Americans are struggling, Japan has decided: spend big. The latest fiscal package is 11.5 trillion yen ($73.5B)—almost double previous estimates. The expected GDP impact is 24 trillion yen ($265B nominal).

To monitor inflation, there are 7,000 yen utility subsidies per household for three months. But the real impact is on yen depreciation. Higher yields on Japanese government bonds (and highest levels in 20 years) have pushed USD/JPY higher, attracting Asian capital flows.

The crypto market is one of the first beneficiaries when the yen depreciates—because risk appetite naturally shifts to slightly more speculative assets.

UK: The Fiscal Crisis Without a Crisis

The budget that was released triggered an unprecedented backlash. The Institute for Fiscal Studies states: “Spend now, pay later”—classic fiscal myopia.

The income tax threshold freeze will bring in £12.7B by 2030-31. The Office for Budget Responsibility warned: a quarter of UK workers will be in the 40% tax bracket by the end of the cycle. This is inequality by administrative design.

Additional measures include pension relief cuts (£5B by 2029-30), a new mansion tax (2028), higher dividend taxes. All of these are disguised wage earner squeezes.

In exchange, welfare spending will increase—£16B higher annual spending by 2029-30, including the removal of the two-child benefit cap. The result? A hamster wheel: tax more, spend more, hope for growth that doesn’t arrive.

UK’s debt over the past 7 months is £117B—crisis-level borrowing without a crisis backdrop. The Financial Times described it as “brutal”—not just harsh language but an accurate diagnosis of the structural problem.

When currencies depreciate and fiscal pressures mount, slight investments in hard assets become a rational play.

The Seasonal Window and Bitcoin’s $90.65K Question

Bitcoin is now at $90.65K (down 0.46% in 24h), and proximity to this level has triggered technical discussions in the market.

Historically, Q4 is the strongest performance season for Bitcoin—dating back to early miner cycles to institutional allocation flows. This year, layered catalysts include:

• US rate cut expectations at 86% probability
• Asian liquidity improvement $90K yen depreciation effects(
• Year-end rebalancing flows
• Low holiday trading volume )potentially volatile upside(

The so-called “Santa Claus rally” in US stocks—the last 5 trading days of December plus the first 2 of January—has an 80% historical win rate. If US stocks rally, Bitcoin has historically followed with higher beta.

But the critical question is: if stocks do not rally due to economic slowdown signals, will Bitcoin still move given the global macro shifts?

The Slight Tilt in Risk Calculus

The “Beige Book” shows distributed economic fatigue across regions. The Fed’s tone has slightly softened. Japan is spending, the UK faces fiscal problems, and global liquidity is preparing to reflate.

For the crypto market, this is a convergence of signals: monetary easing expectations + yen weakness + risk appetite repositioning + low holiday liquidity + Bitcoin’s seasonal strength + year-end institutional positioning.

The question is not just “Will there be a Christmas rally”—but “Is the reflation narrative sustainable into 2025-2026?”

The answer is slightly positive now, but enough to trigger tactical moves in the market. Bitcoin at )is not a magic level, but a psychological anchor. The coming weeks will be critical—not just for Bitcoin, but for the entire macro narrative.

For investors, the holiday period means lower liquidity but potentially outsized moves—a seasonal phenomenon that only slightly amplifies the underlying trend.