In December, US non-farm payroll data showed a phase of weakness. Job gains were only 50,000, far below market expectations, and the data for the previous two months was revised downward by 76,000. Although the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, which looks good, in reality, this is due to a declining labor force participation rate, and the true employment situation is more severe than the surface numbers suggest. Companies are adopting a cautious hiring attitude, and the lagging effects of high interest rates are becoming apparent, sending a clear signal of cooling in the job market.

Interestingly, market pricing for a rate cut in January has almost disappeared, but there is a noticeable split within the Federal Reserve. Governor Mester recently made a strong statement demanding a 150 basis point rate cut this year to stabilize the economy, while the official FOMC dot plot only hints at one rate cut. The hawks are concerned that such a move could trigger a rebound in inflation. Goldman Sachs's forecast is relatively moderate; they believe inflation will gradually fall back to around 2.1%, with room for two rate cuts throughout the year. Although liquidity easing has come a bit late, it is unlikely to be absent.

For crypto investors, relying solely on macroeconomic data won't change the overall trend, but the flow of funds already indicates the direction. Recently, Bitcoin ETFs have experienced phased outflows, while Ethereum, SOL, XRP, and other ETFs are attracting funds. This suggests that institutional capital is adjusting its strategy, shifting from a "bet only on Bitcoin" approach to a more diversified multi-asset allocation. In the short term, attention should be paid to upcoming inflation data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials. In the long term, the two major trends—gradual decline of high interest rates and the advancement of crypto asset regulation—are unlikely to change.