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The Federal Reserve's rate cut countdown has begun, but is the current "prosperity" truly stable?

The latest non-farm payroll data poured cold water on the optimism. Only 50,000 new jobs were added, and the job vacancy rate dropped to 4.6%—what does this number imply? The supply and demand in the labor market are reversing. Although the unemployment rate remains at 4.4%, the steep slope of the Beveridge Curve suggests the problems are more serious than surface data indicates.

When the number of job openings is fewer than job seekers, each lost position directly translates into unemployment. This isn't a gradual adjustment; companies' "layoff buttons" are already primed. Once triggered, the chain reaction follows: unemployment → consumer spending declines → corporate profits are pressured → stock market volatility → risk assets under stress. As a high-risk asset, the crypto market is among the first to feel the impact.

Interestingly, this scene feels familiar. The eerie calm before the dot-com bubble burst in 2000 overlaps with the current prosperity under the AI boom. The difference this time is the added pressure from the dollar appreciation cycle.

For holders, the real test is coming. Will the Federal Reserve cut rates to rescue the market? When is the right time to buy the dip? Or should they just take profits and run? The common strategies are threefold: stay calm and avoid chasing highs, take reasonable profits without greed, and wait for a real opportunity before acting. The storm hasn't fully arrived yet, but preparations should begin.