There is a flood of voices in the market claiming "Four-year cycle believers," repeatedly saying "Just wait a bit longer for the rebound" and "The bull market is still here," as if this theory will never become outdated. But what is the reality? Opening the monthly chart of the US Dollar Index (DXY) makes it clear — this classic cycle theory has completely failed.

What many people haven't realized is that the so-called four-year cycle of BTC is essentially a reflection of the dollar cycle. In the past, the pace of dollar easing and tightening coincided with the four-year bull and bear rotations, but that era has ended. Today, the DXY has moved out of a unidirectional rise and fall pattern into a long-term oscillating downward channel. What does this mean? It means the driving force has changed, and the game rules need to be updated.

The core logic is actually very simple — BTC and DXY are two sides of the same mirror. When DXY falls, BTC rises; when DXY rises, BTC falls. This is not coincidence but an objective law of global capital flow. When the dollar weakens, global capital withdraws from dollar assets and flows into higher-yield risk assets. As a globally priced digital asset, BTC naturally becomes the optimal choice. Conversely, when the dollar strengthens, funds will flow back to the US.

I have verified this logic countless times over eight years of market monitoring, and it is the fundamental basis for my outlook on the future market. Instead of being trapped in the myth of the four-year cycle, it’s better to focus on the real trend of the dollar index — this is the key to understanding the next move in the crypto market.