Recently, many fans have been asking the same question—when will the crypto market truly take off? To be honest, my answer might be surprising: it might have to wait until traditional markets like the US stock market and A-shares have fully corrected, and only then will the spring of crypto truly arrive.

The current situation is very clear. Gold, US stocks, and A-shares are taking turns hitting new highs. What’s behind this? It’s a frantic chase for certainty by capital. The crypto market used to be the "prodigal son," but now it can only wait on the sidelines. Why? Because the entire financial world is experiencing a siphoning of funds.

The traditional markets’ ability to attract capital is indeed strong. US tech stocks are being driven higher by the AI narrative—this isn’t irrational speculation, but a self-reinforcing cycle of passive funds—American workers automatically invest their monthly retirement funds into S&P 500 and other index funds, continuously supporting the market with this rigid capital. Gold? The performance is even more exaggerated, almost crushing stocks and crypto. Major countries worldwide are rapidly increasing their gold holdings—China, India, Russia, and others are making big moves, signaling a gradual departure from the dollar-denominated debt era in global reserve assets.

A-shares are not idle either. Policy incentives are continuously released, and domestic funds keep flowing in. Faced with these "visible stable returns," who still wants to gamble on the highly volatile crypto market? The pursuit of certainty by capital has reached almost a frenzy.

In plain terms, in such an environment, a large amount of capital simply doesn’t want to take risks. They prefer assets that are relatively stable, supported by policies, and backed by traditional finance. Although crypto has imagination, its volatility and instability make it less attractive in the face of certainty.