Market Fear Hits 5-Year Peak: Why Bitcoin's Rally Could Be a Bull Trap Before Deeper Crashes

Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed 14.50% from its recent lows of $80,600, approaching $93,000, but rising fear metrics suggest this recovery may be precisely the kind of trap that precedes major selloffs.

Google Trends Signals Market Capitulation

Last week, searches for “Bitcoin bear market” on Google hit their highest level in five years—a historically reliable warning signal that typically appears just before sharp corrections. Analyst AndrewBTC flagged this surge, noting that the “crowd is terrified again,” a sentiment that in May 2021 (when BTC was near $60,000) preceded a 50%+ crash, and again in June 2022 (around $26,000) before Bitcoin fell to $15,450.

The current spike mirrors these patterns: fear peaks are often followed by liquidation events rather than recoveries.

Bull Trap vs Bear Trap: Understanding the Setup

While bulls argue Bitcoin could rally toward $97,000, bears counter that any surge is merely a bull trap—a false rally that traps optimistic traders before the reversal. This contrasts with a bear trap, but the technical setup here favors the former.

The “bear flag” pattern, a classic technical structure during downtrends, suggests another leg lower. Analysts including Mister Crypto and Celeb Franzen identified this bearish continuation pattern during the recent rebound, with targets as low as $80,000 or even the calculated December downside target of $77,100—representing a 16% drop from current levels.

The 2021 Fractal Blueprint for a $40,000 Crash

The most alarming argument comes from analyzing Bitcoin’s current setup against its 2021 cycle. Analyst Leshka identified an “exact” fractal repeating: a double-top formation, sharp breakdown into cycle support, then a deceptive rebound that forms a bull trap before a more severe collapse.

In 2021, that trap preceded a crash that cut BTC’s value in half. The 2025 pattern shows nearly identical structure, with Bitcoin now hovering within the same support band before an expected breakdown. If the fractal repeats, BTC could revisit the $40,000 region in early 2026—a drop exceeding 50% from current levels.

Analyst Alex Wacy reinforced this thesis, citing Bitcoin’s retreat from its multiyear ascending trendline, a technical break that historically triggers 70% drawdowns.

The Timing Trap

The core bearish thesis: Bitcoin’s current rally isn’t a renewal of bullish momentum toward $150,000+ year-end targets, but rather the setup phase of a multi-month downturn. As AndrewBTC warned, “Everyone will think the bull run is back, but it isn’t and bear market starts.”

With market fear at 5-year highs and technical patterns aligned for deeper declines, the stage appears set for traders to confuse a temporary relief bounce with sustained recovery—the classic definition of a bull trap in action.